|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Thailand Infrastructure Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 91
The Thailand Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's infrastructure industry.
New historical data has confirmed that the political conflict in April-June 2010 had a smaller than expected impact on Thailand’s economy. With the exception of those linked with the tourism sector, most industries – including the construction industry – have been largely unscathed by the conflict on the face of it. Construction industry figures for Q210 registered a real growth of 8.12% year-on-year. For H210, we expect Thailand’s construction sector to follow the country’s wider economy and exports, which have been growing strongly in recent months. As such, BMI maintains its view that Thailand’s construction sector is on course to see a positive reversal in 2010 after two years of poor growth, achieving a full-year growth of 7.0% to reach THB270.9bn (US$8.49bn).
Recent developments include:
- BMI is forecasting a return to growth in the country's construction industry, but believe the risks are firmly to the downside over the medium term. The country’s political situation is likely to remain highly volatile and these unresolved political tensions may undermine investor confidence and compromise the government's ability to tender projects, as the focus may shift to resolving political unrest especially if there is any upturn in conflict. Thailand’s infrastructure sector will also face increasingly intense competition for foreign direct investment from regional peers with better growth prospects. Lastly, we anticipate that the government may have to rein in spending ambitions, given fiscal constraints.
- There have been recent environmental disputes between local communities and energy companies over the establishment of two independent power plants (IPPs) at close proximity. These projects have already been approved by the Thai government and highlight a glaring lack of transparency in the country’s tendering process, further undermining investor confidence. The delay in the two IPPs has prompted the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) to announce an ad hoc investment in a new 800 megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant at its existing Bang Kruay facility. This is to prevent a predicted shortfall in power supplies over the medium term.
- Government contracts continue to be crucial to the growth strategies of many of Thailand’s construction companies. CH. Karnchang, the second largest construction company in the country, has won another contract, worth THB5.03bn (US$159.61mn, to build part of the Blue Line mass transit project in Bangkok. The company has already won a contract to build the underground section of the project.
BMI expects growth in the construction industry to trail economic growth going forward as construction makes up a slightly smaller proportion of total GDP year-on-year (y-o-y) over the forecast period. In 2005, the sector made up 3.03% of GDP, which we expect to fall to 2.70% in 2010. We therefore expect the construction sector’s growth rate to accelerate only modestly beyond 2010, averaging 3.24% per annum between 2011 and 2015. Construction industry value will reach THB363.8bn (US$12.7bn) by 2015.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
