|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Croatia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 80
The Croatia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's defence and security industry.
The long process towards EU accession remains one of the main determinants in Croatia’s defence industry for the long term. While the exact date is uncertain, the country looks set to join within the next four years. As such, the outlook for defence contractors is positive. With a wider market and likely increases in government spending, the defence industry stands to see positive growth – but only if the country can resolve several of the stumbling blocks that have delayed EU accession to date such as widespread corruption, judicial reform and the privatisation of loss-making shipyards. The opening of the final three chapters of Croatia's negotiation process for entry to the EU on June 30 2010 supports our view that the country will enter the EU in the next few years. However, despite positive noises from Zagreb that this could be achieved by 2012, we hold to our core view that Croatia will join the EU in 2013. Indeed, although most chapters are on track, we see the potential for bottlenecks to emerge, which makes 2012 an unrealistic target.
Leading indicator data supports our view that the Croatian economy will only post anaemic 0.5% real GDP growth for 2010. Fixed capital formation and private demand look particularly weak at this juncture, with elevated government spending set to be the main factor keeping growth positive. 2011 should be better, with a firmer bounce in household consumption forecast to drag headline growth up to 2.3%. The strategic framework published by the Ministry of Defence and the Croatian Armed Forces in early 2010 gave outlines for projects for modernising the armed forces and drawing upon the domestic military industry. NATO-style structuralisation of forces and capabilities is high on the agenda as is a gradual reduction of troop numbers from the peaks reached during war-time. What has caused some delay is a lack of willingness to cut jobs in a government area, when the economic situation and unemployment make it politically unpopular.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
