|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Libya Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 80
The Libya Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Libya's defence and security industry.
Libya's relative economic isolation buffered it from the worst of the global financial crisis, increasing its appeal to foreign investors looking for new growth opportunities. Our real GDP growth forecast for 2010 is 3.8% (year on year) y-o-y, largely due to an increase in oil prices. We expect GDP growth to reach 5.8% in 2015. As well as higher oil prices, continuing market liberalisation should help erode structural inefficiencies and foster job creation in the private sector.
Perceptions that Libya remains a pariah state continue to undermine its risk profile. Not only does this jeopardise foreign investment inflows, but it may also limit the ability of Libya's sovereign wealth fund to translate the country's burgeoning oil wealth into investments in more developed Western economies. There is no significant military threat or rivalry in the North African states (the Maghreb), despite some tensions existing between Libya, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco. These countries maintain military forces primarily to protect their borders, and only provide for token forces outside the region.
Internally, we believe that there are no serious threats to Libya’s domestic stability in the short to medium term. The removal of economic sanctions in 2004 and the subsequent rise in oil exports drove popular support for fairer income distribution and to this end, the government's plans to invest heavily in infrastructure should placate any discontent arising from this. After years of sanctions, the strong growth in real GDP and GDP per capita will only improve living standards.
Libya’s defence industry is limited, and almost entirely state-owned. There is no ministry of defence, since all defence functions – presumably including procurement and production – are centralised under the presidency.
Despite efforts to develop a credible indigenous defence industry after Qadhafi assumed power in 1969, Libya’s production capability remains negligible. Historically, Libya has been one of the largest customers of the Soviet Union/Russia for defence equipment. Much of Libya’s military equipment is obsolete and dates back to the Soviet era. However, modernisation is underway.
Libya signed a military-technical cooperation deal with Russia in 2010, worth US$1.8bn (EUR1.3bn). By any measure the contract is a large one, worth nearly a quarter of the Russian state arms exporter’s entire sales in 2009, which were put at about US$7.4bn. It will include the modernisation of about 200 T-72 main battle tanks for the Libyan Army over the next few years.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
