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Poland Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 87
The Poland Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's defence and security industry.
Poland has recovered from the political and military leadership vacuum caused by the shocking deaths of many of its leaders in the presidential plane crash on April 10. As well as former President Lech Kaczynski, Aleksander Szczyglo, chief of the National Security Office, General Franciszek Gagor, army chief of staff, Admiral Andrzej Karweta, head of the Polish navy and general Tadeusz Buk, head of Polish land forces were killed.
Poland looks set to enjoy a period of political calm, given the outcome of the July 4 presidential race. Bronislaw Komorowski was sworn in as Poland's new president on August 6 after winning the presidential election. In the polls, Komorowski won against Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin brother of late president Lech Kaczynski. The new president is expected to emphasise Poland's strong connections to Europe, while keeping good relations with Russia.
Although Poland's economy slowed to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) seasonally adjusted expansion in Q110, from the 1.1% q-o-q real growth seen in Q409, economic activity continues to be buoyed by private consumption – which we see remaining firm as labour market conditions improve. Indeed, we believe that Poland will be regional outperformer in 2010 due to the nation's strong domestic demand. We forecast 3.4% real growth for the year. Unemployment is beginning to moderate, dropping from a postcrisis high of 13.0% in February to 12.3% in April.
Technical modernisation has been one of the government’s main defence priorities. More specifically, the focus has been on acquiring new command, control and communication (C3) equipment, adjustment of reconnaissance and electronic warfare systems to NATO standards, improvement of manoeuvre abilities and firepower of high readiness forces units through implementation of wheeled transporters (Rosomak) and anti-tank missiles (Spike), improvements on abilities of anti-aircraft systems, mobility and transport of the army, and continuation of multitask aircraft programme. Other priorities include; an increased budget allocation for military peace missions; and providing duty conditions for new professional private corps.
Poland’s National Security Strategy identifies the threat from organised international crime, both its character (trafficking in arms, dangerous materials, persons and drugs) and modus operandi (corruption, money laundering, financial system destabilisation). Poland’s territory, due to its transit location, attracts organised international criminal gangs.
Poland has had troops in Afghanistan since March 2002. There are currently 2,500 troops, expected to increase to 2,600 by the end of the year. Poland is expected to leave Afghanistan before 2013, according to a statement by Defence Minister Bodan Klich in June.
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