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Poland Autos Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 65
The Poland Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's automotive industry.
Polish automotive research company Samar reported a 22.9% decline y-o-y in passenger and commercial vehicle production. Units reached a low of 66,100 units in October 2010 which was also a decline m-o-m.
When compared with September 2010, October saw production decrease by 17.13% or 13,659 units. Production of passenger cars and commercial vehicles amounted to 58,251 units and 7,849 units respectively in October.
BMI is particularly worried about the decline in production as the debt crisis in Greece is threatening to spill into the rest of Europe and trigger a widespread crisis throughout Europe. This could have a serious detrimental effect on what little recovery the auto industry has seen in Poland in 2010. Poland export around 90% of their production and another widespread economic crisis could lead to a significant drop in sales. However, despite this black cloud hanging over the industry, BMI expects output to return to speed over the next five years with levels reaching 1.2mn units by 2014. This is approximately 44% more than production levels in 2009.
However, it is not bad news for all of the sector. Another report released by Samar announced that the lower-medium car segment continues to dominate the country's auto sales and represents a 35% share of total market. Small and upper-medium cars were second and third with respective market shares of nearly 26% and 12%. The results of the report ensure that Škoda Auto, Fiat, Ford Motor and Toyota Motor remain the most popular carmakers in the country.
Meanwhile the luxury car segment received a boost with the first Polish dealership of Ferrari officially opened in Warsaw in October. The dealership, Ferrari Warszawa, will showcase the entire range of Ferrari vehicles. The luxury car market is estimated to have risen more than 60% since 2008 and is now worth over US$180mn.
Elsewhere in the industry, Samar reported a 9.9% y-o-y increase in sales of multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs). Levels rose to 13,359 units in September. The MPV segment now represents more than 5.7% of the entire market and is the third largest segment. A total of 233,326 new cars were sold in the first nine months of the year. BMI is optimistic about the long-term forecast for the auto market, despite the decline in production.
The Polish economy has strengthened throughout the year and there is a low rate of vehicle ownership; a base which is set to be built upon. We expect consumer demand to increase significantly over the next five years with total vehicle sales reaching 488,047 units by 2014, a rise of 31% when compared with 2009 sales. Car sales in Poland grew 9.7% y-o-y to 314,672 units, in the first three quarters of 2010 and this reinforces BMI's already optimistic forecast of 5.5% y-o-y growth by the end of this year. It also confirms our view that private consumption will drive the sector forward and could enable Poland’s economy to come out of the global downturn relatively unscathed.
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