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State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2010, Outlooks for 2011 (Russian Version)
National Energy Security Fund, December 2010, Pages: 54
The oil and gas industry seems to be at standstill waiting for serious novelties prepared by the government: changes in the taxation sphere are actively discussed, variants of privatization of state assets in the oil and gas sector are considered and there are speculations about possible revision of licensing, conditions of offshore work and even return to the PSA procedures.
At the same time, there is no distinct plan – on the contrary, the situation constantly changes. The matter is that several processes overlap each other. There is expectation of soon beginning of decline in production and approaching of a new election cycle, which does not allow Vladimir Putin to define the role of the oil and gas sector. The prime minister does not know whether the industry should be given a tax break in the situation when before the elections it is necessary to raise social expenses. The premier does not understand whether oil and gas companies should be allowed to earn more on the domestic fuel market or to recognize growth in prices socially and economically dangerous.
An additional factor is growing competition of main administrative and political clans in Russia on the eve of elections. Clans fight against each other for new transportation routes, control over exports and schemes of selling state property.
The report will elaborate on the following issues:
- Preliminary production results of the year
Formally optimistic parameters do not mean wellbeing
Major hindrances in the Russian upstream and downstream segments
- Pipeline wars
Choosing export routes of Russian hydrocarbons is one of the most dramatic topics in struggle between Russian administrative and political groups
Creation of the system of transferring hydrocarbons from the west to the east
The new law “On Oil” as an instrument of administrative control over exports
Shortage of money on pipelines amid demands of major clans for new construction
- Situation on the domestic fuel market
Why was transfer to the principle of equal profitability on the domestic gas market postponed?
The election campaign and its influence on prices of gas and oil products
War between the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service and oil producers and the reasons of its failure
The test of the system “low taxes on gas firms and low domestic prices; high taxes on oil firms and high domestic prices on oil products”
- Struggle around taxation of the oil and gas industry
Collision of the pre-election and production logic
The situation around export duties on oil products
How to encourage processing and simultaneously solve the “Belarusian puzzle”
Switching from the general fiscal policy to a dedicated one – emergence of too many projects with special fiscal rules
- Property redistribution
Public beginning of the phase of the big Putin privatization
Preparing for sale of large assets
Simultaneous continuation of quiet privatization – transfer of licenses from the undistributed subsoil reserve to state and private companies
Political results of the Trebs and Titov tender
- Medium-term forecast of developments during the period of election turbulence
Authors of the report are leading experts in oil and gas industry. They are available for detailed discussions and data clarifications.
Chapter 1. Production Results of the year
Chapter 2. Struggle for Transportation Routes
Chapter 3. Domestic Market: Between Interests of Sectoral Players and Election Logic
Chapter 4. Taxation of Oil and Gas Industry: from the General to the Particular
Chapter 5. Property Redistribution on the Russian Oil and Gas Market
Chapter 6. Main Legislative Initiatives
Forecast of Developments in 2011
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