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Czech Republic Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 57
The new Czech Republic Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.15% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2015, and will remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 17.1% during 2010-2015.
CEE thermal power generation in 2010 will have been around 1,284TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. BMI’s forecast for 2015 is 1,449TWh, implying 12.8% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 47.9% – thanks to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The Czech Republic’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 50.6TWh, or 3.94% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 3.74% of thermal generation.
For the Czech Republic, gas in 2010 will have accounted for 18.8% of PED, with coal at 39.7%, nuclear energy at 15.3%, and oil having a 24.1% share of PED. Hydro-electricity and renewables represent the remainder of the energy pie. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn toe by 2015, representing 17.00% growth over the period 2010-2015. The Czech Republic’s estimated 2010 market share of 3.13% is set to fall to 3.02% by 2015. The Czech Republic in 2010 will have accounted for an estimated 7.85% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with its share down to 6.89% by 2015. In BMI’s updated Business Environment Ratings, the Czech Republic ranks last behind Ukraine out of the nine CEE states as a result of its limited market size, modest growth prospects, relatively high level of energy import dependence, moderate progress towards the use of renewables, and underwhelming privatisation trend. Country risk factors offset some of the industry weakness, but the country seems destined to remain near the bottom of the table for the foreseeable future.
BMI forecasts that real Czech GDP growth will average 3.4% a year during 2010-2015, with an increase of 2.7% assumed in 2011. The population is expected to rise to around 10.6mn, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase 46% and 16% respectively between 2010 and 2015. The country’s power consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 58.3TWh in 2010 to 68.4TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, BMI see surplus supply rising from an estimated 10.6TWh in 2010 to 12.2TWh in 2015, assuming 2.8% average annual growth in power generation between 2010 and 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, they are forecasting an increase in Czech electricity generation of 26.5%, which is the slowest projected growth rate for the CEE region. This equates to 9.6% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 15.4% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to ease from 13.0% in 2010-2015 to 8.8% in 2015- 2020, representing an increase of 22.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 200% in hydropower use during 2010-2020 is a key element of generation growth, with nuclear usage up by 27%.
Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 5% between 2010 and 2020. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
Czech Republic Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Czech Republic's power industry.
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