|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Kazakhstan Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 42
Kazakhstan Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's power industry.
BMI forecasts that Kazakhstan will account for 3.81% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2015, with a slight supply shortfall after system losses etc. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. BMI forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 17.1% during 2010-2015. CEE thermal power generation in 2010 will have been around 1,284TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,449TWh, implying 12.8% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 47.9% – thanks to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kazakhstan’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 73.9TWh, or 5.75% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 692% of CEE thermal generation.
Coal is the dominant fuel source in Kazakhstan. In 2010, it will have accounted for an estimated 51.1% of primary energy demand (PED). Coal is followed by gas at 28.0%, oil at 18.1% and hydro with a 2.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn toe by 2015, representing 17.00% growth over the period 2010-2015. Kazakhstan’s estimated 2010 market share of 5.20% of regional demand is set to rise to 6.01% by 2015. Kazakhstan has longer-term plans for nuclear power generation, but will not contribute to regional nuclear consumption during the forecast period.
Kazakhstan is ahead of Poland in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, having retained regional leadership. There is a combination of unrivalled power consumption growth outlook, regiontopping energy demand growth, steady privatisation progress, and relatively low level of energy import dependence. Country risk factors offset some of the industry strengths, but the country should remain at the top of the regional ladder.
BMI is now predicting that Kazakh real GDP growth will average 7.2% per annum between 2010 and 2015, with an assumed rise of 7.1% in 2011. The population is expected to expand from 16.1mn to 16.7mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase 121% and 35% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 59.2TWh in 2010 to 83.6TWh by the end of the forecast period, after power industry usage and system losses, BMI see an estimated net import requirement of 2.6TWh, assuming 6.6% average annual growth in power generation in 2010-2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, they are forecasting an increase in Kazakh electricity generation of 95.4%, which is the highest projected growth rate for the CEE region. This equates to 40.3% over the 2015-2020 period, up from 39.3% between 2010 and 2015. PED growth is set to increase from 35.1% between 2010 and 2015 to 36.4% in 2015-2020, representing 84.2% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 131% in hydro-power use during the period 2010-2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 77.8% between 2010 and 2020. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found later in this report.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
