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Poland Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 60
Poland Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's power industry.
The new Poland Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.12% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2015, and remain a small-scale net importer of electricity from neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. BMI forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 17.1% during 2010-2015. CEE thermal power generation in 2010 will have been around 1,284TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. BMI’s forecast for 2015 is 1,449TWh, implying 12.8% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 47.9% – thanks to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Poland’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 150.2TWh, representing 11.69% of the regional total. By 2015 it is expected to account for 12.01% of thermal generation.
For Poland, coal is the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 58.2% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 26.7%, gas at 13.1% and hydro with a 0.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn toe by 2015, representing 17.00% growth over the period 2010- 2015. Poland’s estimated 2010 market share of 7.40% is set to fall to 7.32% by 2015. Poland has no operational nuclear generating capacity and is not expected to build a new plant during the forecast period. It makes no contribution to regional nuclear energy consumption.
Poland is now positioned second behind only Kazakhstan in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to its power consumption growth outlook, substantial installed capacity and power generation, competitive landscape and progress towards full power market deregulation. Country risk factors complement the many industry strengths, but Poland is ranked just a point above Turkey and Russia.
BMI forecasts average annual Polish real GDP growth of 4.1% between 2010 and 2015, with an assumed 2011 increase of 3.9%. The population is expected to slip from 38.2mn to 38.0mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by 63% and 22% respectively. The country’s electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 123.6TWh in 2010 to 149.8TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, BMI see an estimated net shortfall of up to 3.0TWh, assuming 3.4% average annual growth in electricity generation in 2010-2015.
Between 2010 and 2020 BMI are forecasting an increase in Polish electricity generation of 36.05%, which is middle of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 15.1% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 18.2% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to ease from 15.7% in 2010-2015 to 12.9% in the 2015-2020 period, representing 30.6% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 40% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 34% between 2010 and 2020. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
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