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Romania Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 56
Romania Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Romania's power industry.
BMI forecasts that by 2015 Romania will account for 2.24% of Central Eastern Europe (CEE) regional power generation, and will remain a modest net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 17.1% during 2010-2015.
CEE thermal power generation in 2010 will have stood at around 1,284TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. BMI’s forecast for 2015 is 1,449TWh, implying 12.8% growth, but reducing thermal generation’s market share to 47.9%, thanks to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. In 2010, Romania’s thermal generation is expected to stand at 30.3TWh, or 2.36% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 2.33% of regional thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel source in Romania, accounting for an estimated 35.7% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED). Gas is followed by oil at 29.0%, coal at 18.1%, hydro at 10.3% and nuclear with a 6.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn toe by 2015, representing 17.00% growth over the period 2010-2015. Romania’s estimated 2010 market share of 2.64% is set to rise to 2.70% by 2015. In 2010, Romania will have accounted for an estimated 2.71% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with a forecast market share of 2.58% by 2015.
Romania now holds fifth place in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, having this quarter slipped behind Turkey and Russia, but still remains ahead of Slovakia. The score reflects a relatively low level of import dependence, a high proportion of renewable energy, growing PED and an established competitive landscape. Over the medium term, Romania it is likely to be left further behind by Turkey and Russia, while Slovakia and Hungary, who rest below it pose little threat.
BMI expects Romanian real GDP growth to average 3.0% a year between 2010 and 2015, with an assumed 2011 increase of 2.1%. The country’s population is set to contract from 21.4mn in 2010, to 21.0mn in 2015, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to rise 62% and 23% respectively. The country’s electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 38.7TWh in 2010 to 46.5TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, BMI see an estimated net surplus of up to 4.3TWh in 2015, assuming 2.8% average annual growth in generation in 2010-2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, BMI are forecasting an increase in Romanian electricity generation of 43.9%, which is towards the upper end of the projected range for the CEE region. This equates to 19.1% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 20.8% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to decrease from 19.5% in 2010- 2015 to 18.4% in 2015-2020, representing 41.6% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 39% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 will be a key element of generation growth, with nuclear use set to rise by 68%. Thermal power generation is forecast to increase by 63% between 2010 and 2020. More detail of BMI’s long-term forecasts can be found later in the report.
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