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Russia Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 56
Russia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's power industry.
BMI forecasts that by 2015 Russia will account for 39.60% of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)’s regional power generation, and will remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states, even after substantial system losses. CEE power generation in 2010 is estimated to come in at 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 17.1% during 2010-2015.
We estimate that CEE thermal power generation in 2010 will reach 1,284TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. BMI’s forecast for 2015 is 1,449TWh, implying 12.8% growth, but reducing thermal generation’s market share, thanks to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. In 2010, Russia’s thermal generation is expected to stand at 667TWh, or 51.89% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 49.00% of regional thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel in Russia, accounting for an estimated 54.7% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED). Gas is followed by oil at 20.3%, coal at 13.2%, nuclear at 5.7%, and hydro with a 6.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn toe by 2015, representing 17.00% growth over the period 2010-2015. Russia’s estimated 2010 market share of 50.20% is set to fall to 49.09% by 2015. In 2010, Russia will have accounted for an estimated 47.10% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with a forecast market share of 49.53% by 2015.
Russia now shares third place with Turkey in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, having fallen behind Poland this quarter. Russia’s current score reflects the vast size of the country’s electricity market and infrastructure, a high level of GDP per capita growth, and a relatively low level of import dependence. Country risk factors undermine the industry scores to some extent. Turkey could be overtaken during the next few quarters and Poland could eventually become a target.
BMI now expects Russian real GDP growth to average 4.3% per annum between 2010 and 2015, with the same rate of growth forecast for 2011. Russia’s population is expected to fall from 141.8mn to 139.0mn in 2015, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are projected to increase by 115% and 26%, respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 715TWh in 2010, to 881TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, BMI see an estimated net surplus of up to 14-20TWh during the period, assuming 3.2% annual average growth in generation in 2010-2015.
BMI are forecasting an increase in Russian electricity generation of 33.7% between 2010 and 2020, which is towards the lower end of the projected range for the CEE region. This equates to 13.7% in the 2015- 2020 period, down from 17.6% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 14.4% in 2010-2015 to 14.6% in 2015-2020, representing 31.1% over the entire forecast period. An increase of 56% in hydropower use during 2010-2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 13% between 2010 and 2020, with nuclear demand up 76%. More detail of BMI’s long-term forecasts can be found later in this report.
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