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Poland Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 106
Poland Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q111 report on Poland’s telecommunications industry contains updated five-year forecasts predicting the development of the country’s fixed-line, broadband and mobile telephony sectors. Their forecasts have also been extended through to the end of 2015. Their new mobile subscriber forecast is based on data published by Polish network operators, Orange, PTC (owned by Deutsche Telekom) for the first nine months of 2010. Their forecast also takes account of H110 data published by Polkomtel, the country’s second-largest mobile operator by subscribers. Meanwhile, their fixed-line telephony and broadband subscriber forecasts have been updated to reflect Q310 data published by polish incumbent operator TPSA and alternative operators such as Netia and Multimedia Polska.
Although Poland’s mobile subscriber base shrank by 0.2% in Q110, the sector returned to positive growth in Q210 and Q310. BMI now estimate that the mobile subscriber base grew by 2.5% in 2010 as a whole, to surpass 46mn. The positive growth in the latter part of 2010 followed a period in which Poland’s largest mobile operators deducted large numbers of inactive prepaid users from their customer totals. Going forward, they believe that further customer deductions are a real possibility. However, it is also possible that sharp customer deductions could reveal additional, as yet untapped, growth potential. One of the dominant trends shaping Poland’s mobile market over the forecast period will be the emphasis by the larger operators on attracting higher value contract customers and mobile data subscribers.
BMI estimates that Poland had over 3mn mobile subscribers at the end of September 2010. These made for a total broadband subscriber market of 9.68mn at the end of 2010, equivalent to a penetration rate of over 25%. Over their forecast period, they predict that Poland’s broadband market will benefit from increased investment by the operators, including networks upgrades and expansions. Although they expect the strongest growth to occur in the mobile broadband segment, BMI believe that fixed broadband services will also continue to expand at impressive steady pace. Growth in the fixed broadband segment will benefit from operator efforts to tap the demand for double- and triple-play packages providing broadband in bundles with fixed-line, pay-TV, mobile and VoIP services.
Poland’s mobile network operators have already begun preparing for the introduction of so-called ‘fourth generation’ (4G) mobile services based on Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology. In September 2010, it was reported that the country’s two smallest mobile operators CenterNet and Mobyland had launched a shared LTE network utilising the 1800MHz frequency band. Also in September, Poland’s third-largest mobile operator Polkomtel announced that it was testing LTE technology. Meanwhile, in June, it was reported that P4 and Orange Poland planned to set up a JV to bid in a tender for LTE frequencies. The Polish telecoms regulator announced plans to launch a tender for LTE radio spectrums later in 2010. However, at the time of writing, there had been no word on the progress of this tender.
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