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Russia Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 102
Russia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q111 report on Russia’s telecommunications industry contains updated five-year forecasts. Their new mobile subscriber forecast incorporates data published by Russian network operators, Mobile TeleSystems (MTS), VimpelCom, MegaFon and Tele2 Russia for the first nine months of 2010. Based on the available data, BMI estimate that Russia had around 219.5mn mobile telephony customers at the end of 2010. This reflects full-year growth of 5.6% and a penetration rate of nearly 155%. After experiencing a return to positive subscriber growth in the third quarter of 2010, BMI believe that this positive growth trend was sustained in the final quarter of the year.
BMI estimate that, by the end of 2010, there were just over 45.1mn Russian fixed-line subscribers, down by 0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y). With the increasing threat from mobile and VoIP services in Russia, BMI anticipate the decline in fixed-line subscriptions becoming pronounced from 2011 onwards.
Meanwhile, BMI’s new broadband subscriber forecast for Russia envisages just over 16mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2010. This was up by almost 25% from 12.9mn at the end of 2009. BMI’s estimate for Russia’s broadband market includes mobile broadband subscribers who connect to the internet via USB modems. Given the extent to which Russia’s mobile operators are deploying 3G infrastructures and also preparing for the migration to 4G, BMI suspects that mobile services will play a key part in driving the growth of Russia’s broadband sector over the next few years. However, mobile broadband services based on UMTS and LTE technology will compete alongside fixed broadband services based on optical fibre and alternative wireless platforms such as WiMAX.
A key development which continues to shape the provision of telecommunications in Russia is the ongoing consolidation of the industry. One of the biggest developments currently underway is the restructuring of Russia’s fixed-line and broadband operators currently managed through the state-owned Svyazinvest holding company. In November 2009, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin finally approved a long-awaited plan to restructure Svyazinvest. The restructuring programme will see the integration of Svyazinvest’s regional telecoms subsidiaries to create a ‘national champion’ centred on national long-distance carrier Rostelecom. The merger of these regional companies into Rostelecom was expected to be completed by February 2011.
Meanwhile, a spate of consolidation between mobile and fixed-line operators should result in the growth of bundled services. Mobile operators are increasingly looking to long-distance fixed-line services and broadband to diversify their offering in view of the expected saturation in the mobile market. With the acquisition of Synterra in March 2010, MegaFon joined fellow mobile operators, MTS and VimpelCom, in establishing a stronghold in the fixed-line sector. Meanwhile, in recent months, MTS has moved to consolidate its control over fixed-line operator Comstar-UTS as well as that company’s affiliate, Moscow-based incumbent Moscow City Telephone Networks (MGTS).
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