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Spain Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 90
Spain Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Spain's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q111 report on Spain’s telecommunications industry contains updated five-year forecasts predicting the development of the country’s fixed-line, broadband and mobile telephony sectors. Thei forecasts have also been extended through to the end of 2015. The most significant changes relate to Spain’s mobile market where the latter part of 2010 saw a return to positive customer growth. As BMI reported in their last update, the second quarter of 2010 demonstrated a return to positive, albeit limited growth, following two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, in the third quarter of 2010, all four operators reported positive customer growth, resulting in an overall net gain of 1.147mn customers for the Spanish mobile market. Recent moves by the Spanish operators to eliminate inactive subscribers from their networks has helped to ‘clear-up’ the Spanish mobile market and revealed the extent to which it offers further growth potential. BMI estimates that, by the end of 2010, the Spanish mobile customer base had risen to just over 56.1mn; this is equivalent to a penetration rate of 121.5% and reflects full-year growth of 4.2%.
BMI anticipates slow steady growth for Spain’s mobile market in the five years to 2015. However, they do not rule out the possibility of further moves by the operators to periodically deduct inactive customers from their reported totals. Over their forecast period, BMI envisage an annual average growth rate of 0.8%, amounting to 4.1% over the five years. By the end of 2015, they predict that the market will have just over 58.4mn mobile phone subscribers, and a penetration rate of just over 122%.
Meanwhile, BMI estimate that there were almost 31.6mn 3G subscribers in Spain at the end of 2010 (despite a lack of verifiable data from market leaders Vodafone and Movistar). This was equivalent to just over 56% of the mobile market. BMI believe it will be the 3G service segment which produces the real growth in Spain, generating new revenues and more connections for operators. An increase in the use of mobile internet and data services partly explains the way mobile ARPU rates have stabilised and even risen in recent quarters.
Although BMI estimate that 2010 saw a slight increase in the number of fixed telephony connections, their long-term forecast scenario continues to be one of a shrinking fixed-line market. In the five years to 2015, they predict an annual average contraction of 0.7%. This will amount to a 3.3% shrinkage overall. In contrast to fixed-line decline, BMI’s broadband subscriber forecast for Spain is based on an annual average growth rate of 8% (amounting to almost 40% growth over the five years). Over the long term, BMI predicts that an increasing number of subscribers will use mobile networks for their broadband needs, while improved download speeds will help to push this development further. As ‘fourth generation’ (4G) mobile services based on Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology are rolled out, mobile broadband services are expected to rival high-speed fixed broadband services based on optical-fibre.
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