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Angola Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 92
The Angola Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Angola's oil and gas industry.
The latest Angola Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.88% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 19.66% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 3.81mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and will in 2010 average an estimated 10.18mn b/d. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can overcome its political and security challenges.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 123.4bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. In 2010 Angola will consume an estimated 4.05% of the region’s gas, while producing around 2.28%. By 2015, we expect its share of consumption to be 6.05%, with a 5.46% contribution to regional gas production. For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
We assume that Angola’s real GDP will rise by 7.5% in 2010, with average annual growth of 9.1% expected in 2010-2015. Healthy economic growth is exceeded by spectacular oil demand growth, albeit from a low base. Consumption is set to rise from an estimated 94,000b/d in 2010 to 215,000b/d by 2015. State oil company Sonangol operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) and now accounts for less than 40% of the country’s oil output. Thanks largely to IOC investment, oil output is forecast to increase from an estimated 1.81mn b/d in 2010 to 2.38mn b/d in 2015, with exports heading towards 2.16mn b/d. Angola’s OPEC membership is posing some problems in terms of production quotas. Gas production of an estimated 5.0bcm in 2010 is projected to reach 17.6bcm by 2015. Consumption is expected to rise to 10.6bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential of around 7bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast an increase in Angolan oil and gas liquids production of 10.5%, with volumes peaking at 2.45mn b/d in 2016, before slipping steadily to 2mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 342.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 15.0% a year towards the end of the period and the country using 416,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 36.4bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising 328.3% between 2010 and 2020, export potential should increase to 15.0bcm, in the form of LNG.
Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Angola now shares sixth place with Gabon in BMI’s composite oil and gas sector Business Environment (BE) ratings, which combines scores for the upstream and downstream segments. In the updated upstream BE ratings the country ranks fifth, ahead of Algeria and just a point behind neighbouring Nigeria. The country’s score benefits from an excellent oil and gas output growth outlook, respectable proven reserves, a large number of non-state companies active in the upstream sector and decent licensing terms. Country risk factors continue to plague the country and lower its score. Any improvement here means a rapid rise up the rankings. Angola is around the middle of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment ratings with a few high scores, but progress further up the ratings is unlikely over the near term. It now has sixth place ahead of Sudan, in spite of low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas consumption, and private company competition in the downstream segment.'
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