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Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 74
The Cameroon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cameroon's oil and gas industry.
This new Cameroon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.99% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.81% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is forecast to rise to 3.81mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and is expected to average 10.18mn b/d in 2010. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.87mn b/d. BMI expects this total to rise to 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and forecasts a further increase to 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasipolitical issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 123.4bcm in 2010, with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. Cameroon makes no significant current contribution to regional gas supply or demand.
For 2010 as a whole, we expect an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI forecasts an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase on the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl, compared with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. BMI puts the 2010 average naphtha price at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts Cameroon’s real GDP rising by 2.8% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.5% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 34,000b/d in 2010 to 44,000b/d in 2015. State oil company Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH) operates in partnership with a small group of international oil companies (IOCs). It is also responsible for selling the government’s share of oil output and holds a 20% stake in projects operated by Total, Pecten and Perenco. Thanks to IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output of around 67,000b/d in 2010 is expected to peak at 98,000b/d in 2015. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly over the longer term, potentially providing the basis for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by around 2016.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Cameroon’s oil and gas liquids production of 32.2%, with volumes peaking at an estimated 98,000b/d in 2015 before slipping to 89,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 56,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 5.0bcm by the end of the period. With demand growing by a forecast 85%, there is potential for net exports of 4.6bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Cameroon is in the lower half of BMI’s composite Business Environment ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is placed eighth, above Republic of Congo (RoC). The country now shares seventh place with Egypt in the updated upstream ratings, although it is just one point ahead of RoC. The county’s score benefits from reasonable gas output growth prospects, a very healthy gas reserves to production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in the African region. Cameroon is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, with few high scores and immediate progress unlikely. It is ranked equal eighth alongside Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, nominal GDP and the absence of competition in the downstream segment.'
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