Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 67
The Gabon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Gabon's oil and gas industry.
This new Gabon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.40% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 1.99% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is expected to increase to 3.81mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and is forecast to average 10.18mn b/d in 2010. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.87mn b/d. BMI forecasts this total rising to an estimated 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and further to 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasipolitical issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 123.4bcm in 2010, with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. Gabon is neither a significant regional producer nor consumer of gas.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl, compared with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. BMI puts the 2010 average naphtha price at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts Gabon’s real GDP rising by 3.0% in 2010. We are forecasting average annual growth of 4.0% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 13,970b/d in 2010 to 17,8308b/d in 2015. State oil company Société Nationale Petrolière Gabonaise (SNPG) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from an estimated 240,000b/d in 2010 to a peak of 255,000b/d in 2012, before easing to 240,000b/d by 2015. Gas production should reach 1bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 0.2bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to follow the production trend, with no need for imports but no surplus gas to export.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decline in Gabon oil and gas liquids production of 9.6%, with volumes peaking at 255,000b/d in 2012, before falling steadily to 217,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 22,750b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to be 1bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 400% between 2010 and 2020, there should be a balanced market, with no need for imports or scope for exports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Gabon now shares sixth place with Angola in BMI’s composite Business Environment ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country now holds second place behind Libya in our updated upstream and may struggle to defend its position over the medium term as the presence of Nigeria, Algeria and Angola below threatens. The county’s score benefits from healthy gas output growth prospects, a particularly high gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is fragile, but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. Gabon is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, with no high scores and progress unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or new refineries are built. It shares eighth place with Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population."
Executive Summary
Gabon Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Regaining Momentum
Quarterly Trends
Global Oil Market Outlook
Sitting Comfortably
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings
Gabon Upstream Rating – Overview
Gabon Upstream Rating – Rewards
Gabon Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings
Gabon Downstream Rating – Overview
Gabon Downstream Rating – Rewards
Gabon Downstream Rating – Risks
Risk Summary
Political Risk
Economic Risk
Business Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Gabon Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Gabon Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Gabon Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Addax Petroleum
Total Gabon – Summary
Shell Gabon – Summary
Maurel & Prom – Summary
VAALCO Energy – Summary
Perenco – Summary
Eni – Summary
Tullow Oil – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2012-2019 (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm)
Gabon Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Addax Petroleum
- Total Gabon
- Shell Gabon
- Maurel & Prom
- VAALCO Energy
- Perenco
- Eni
- Tullow Oil
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