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Russia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 94
The Russia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI has scaled down some of its expectations for full-year 2010 market growth, but retains its essentially bullish forecast of a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.46% between 2009 and 2014. This trails the 20% plus growth rates seen before 2009, the combination of growth from a higher base and, more ominously, the Russian economy’s forecast of middling real GDP growth rates compared to other CIS and BRIC peers of under 5%. Nonetheless, we currently forecast that the Russian market will increase in value from RUB462.6bn (US$14.6bn) at the end of 2009 to RUR723.5bn (US$28.7bn) by the end of 2014, a near doubling of market value and putting medicines consumption per capita at over US$200.
We predict that expanded public coverage will be the key trend in Russia (as in Kazakhstan and possibly Ukraine). In November, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced a new implementation date of 2013 for a previously unveiled universal medicines insurance scheme. It was originally due to be implemented in 2010, but appeared to become a casualty of the financial crisis. If realised, the programme promises to raise yet more politically tinged issues regarding pricing, but is still likely to give the market a sharp boost in value. In another positive sign, in September, the government surprised many analysts by pushing through a surprisingly liberal new Law on Medicines after previous drafts threatened onerous legislation on many aspects of pharmaceutical pricing marketing. Most of these were dropped and price setting limited to medicines on the Essential Drug sList – the process demonstrated that the Russian government is willing to talk constructively with the industry.
Behind the good news are challenges that are reflected in our somewhat conservative forecast, especially compared to some forecasts emanating from the government. Russian consumer spending growth could amount to just 4% for full-year 2010. Russian companies will face major challenges if they are to meet the Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) compliance deadline in 2014 – something which is enshrined in the new law. Additionally many observers question whether the authorities will be able to efficiently target investment instate-sector projects aimed at building new, import-substitution oriented facilities. More broadly, the involvement of large companies such as the Russian Nanotechnology Corporation (Rosnano) in the sector provides crucial scale and financing, but Russian state corporations have a generally dismal track record for driving innovation and industrial development.
Meanwhile, Russian healthcare sector companies have returned to the capital markets for the first time since the end of the crisis. Following distributor Protek’s US$400mn IPO in May, domestic player Pharmsynthez carried out a local IPO that raised RUR650mn (US$21mn) in November and has discussed a potential US listing by 2014. Bigger players may look to a recent high-profile M&A deal in a different, consumer-driven sector – the US$6bn deal by PepsiCo for local dairy and beverages player Wimm-Bill-Dann. Few Russian pharma players, if any, are as mature and face an even more difficult regulatory environment, but a big cross border acquisition in the production sector could energise the industry. Similarly, if players like Teva or Novartis commit to building major new projects in the sector, it would be a broader victory for the government’s ‘Pharma 2020’ strategy which aims to bring onshore production capacity and the sort of technical and investment resources possessed only by large multinationals.
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