Germany Agribusiness Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 66
The Germany Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Germany's agribusiness service.
BMI View: The growing popularity of biofuels and the regulations designed to promote their use areliterally changing the landscape of German grain production. With draft legislation allowing the sale ofE10 in German gas stations gaining Bundesrat approval, bioethanol use in Germany can only increase.This will boost production of wheat and corn, though barley is likely to lose popularity. We areforecasting production of barley to fall 8.6% over our five-year forecast period to 2015.
Key Views
Wheat production n 2010/11 to fall to 23.2mn tonnes, down 7.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) as a result ofdamage by persistent rains. Barley to come in at 10.3mn tonnes, down 15.9% y-o-y. Corn to fall to 3.7mntonnes, down 18.5%.
Low milk prices prevalent in 2009 and a quota increase of 1% forced some industry exits, resulting inreduced output. In 2010 we estimate production rose 1.4% y-o-y to reach 27.8mn tonnes. In 2011,production is likely to rise marginally to 27.9mn tonnes.We expect pork production in 2011 to rise a very healthy 5.2% to 5.63mn tonnes. Output growth tomaintain a strong upward trajectory and expand by 22.0% to 2015, consolidating Germany's place as theEU's top pork producer, accounting for around 20% of the entire EU pork market.
In 2011, sky-high sugar prices are likely to result in a decrease in consumption. We are forecastingconsumption to come in at 3.11mn tonnes, down 2.2% y-o-y. Over our five-year forecast period from2010, sugar consumption is predicted to decline by just over 5% to 3.02mn tonnes in 2015.
Industry developmentsAlthough an attempt to introduce E10 bioethanol fuel to gas stations in 2008 failed following protestersfrom car importers, this time the government looks likely to succeed. In November, the GermanBundesrat approved draft legislation allowing E10 to be sold from January 1 2011.
Germany is leading the way with meat origin labelling and has been promoting voluntary use of D/D/Dlabels (born/raised/slaughtered). What has until now been a voluntary scheme looks likely to soonbecome EU law. In early December 2010, EU health ministers voted in favour of extending compulsorylabelling of agricultural produce to cover lamb, pork and poultry. The move should help to protectGerman products from cheaper imports from the likes of Eastern Europe, Thailand and Brazil.The European Commission announced proposals on dairy industry reform in December 2011 Theyinclude improving contractual relations between producers and processors and allowing farmers tonegotiate with processors collectively. We expect these proposals to support production when they areimplemented and we are watching developments closely."
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Germany Agriculture SWOT
Germany Political SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Germany Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Germany Grains Outlook
GERMANY Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Germany Livestock Outlook
GERMANY Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Germany Dairy Outlook - Q1 2011
GERMANY Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Germany Cocoa Outlook
GERMANY Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
GERMANY Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
Germany Sugar Outlook
GERMANY Sugar Production & Consumption
GERMANY Sugar Production & Consumption
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table: Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Grains Update
Corn
Table: Corn
Rice
Table: Rice
Soybean
Table: Soybean
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Total Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Germany MGR Sector - Sales Value by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Macroeconomic Forecast
Germany – Economic Activity
Industry Trends Analysis
Arla's International Ambitions Prompt Merger Talks With Germany's Hansa-Milch
German Consumer Spending Likely To Be Constrained By Subdued Economic Outlook
Global Food & Drink View
- Arla
- Hansa-Milch
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