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Indonesia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 101
Business Monitor International's Indonesia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's defence and security industry.
In 2004 and then again in 2009 Indonesia held fair and peaceful parliamentary and presidential elections. There is now finally evidence that democracy is taking hold. At the same time, however, there are several struggles for independence, or at least autonomy, within the country. There is also a risk of terrorist attacks.
The secessionist movements at either end of the archipelago, in Aceh and Papua, are the best known. Arguably the Aceh region provides the greatest risk to Indonesia. A compromise with the secessionist movement allowed the province the adopt part of the Shari'ah law, in contradiction of Indonesia's secular constitution. Since that time the members of Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM), or the Free Aceh Movement, have not been mollified but have become more fundamentalist and actively supportive of other insurgent movements.
The situation in Papua is somewhat different. The indigenous people are ethnically Melanesians, who are largely Christian (or Animist). The province was not originally part of Indonesia and many of the locals want independence. The position is complicated by the internal migration of many people from Java and Madura that has fundamentally changed the ethnic makeup in Papua. The troubles in Papua gained renewed international exposure when evidence of torture by Indonesian troops came to light. Indonesia charged four soldiers over the incident and they were sentenced in November 2010 to between five and seven months in prison for ‘disciplinary breaches’. There was widespread anger in Papua over the lenient sentences and the failure of the authorities to address an even more extreme torture case at all.
The emerging issue though is one of ‘Christianisation’. Some evangelical protestant groups, some from the US but others are locally based, have been quite aggressive in their efforts to convert Muslims to Christianity. This causes resentment within the dominantly Muslim population. Most of the parties are pressing the case for ‘religious tolerance’ but always on their own terms. Generally, they protest peacefully but some Muslim groups are threatening violent reprisals. There is concern at the lack of government action and the tendency to leave the matter to be addressed at the local level.
Both President Yudhoyono in 2004 and defence minister Yusgiantoro in 2010 have spoken of their determination to reduce the level of dependence on imported defence equipment by supporting the development of the local industry. The government has held meetings were held with representatives of the domestic defence industry regarding the needs of the military and the police. Capabilities and opportunities for domestic funding have been discussed. However, little progress has been made since the programme was introduced in 2007.
Economically, Indonesia is on a sound footing. Its economy is one of those more isolated from global trade and it was therefore relatively unaffected by the GFC. Domestic consumption and investment growth with continue to power the economy. One example of the upbeat consumer sentiment is the statistic that shows new car sales to be up by 76% in H110. While Indonesia faces a number of challenges there is every reason to believe in its future.
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