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Hungary Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 57
Hungary Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's power industry.
BMI forecasts that Hungarian power generation will account for 1.41% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional output by 2015, with the country remaining a net importer of electricity from neighbouring states during this time. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 17.1% during 2010-2015.
CEE thermal power generation in 2010 will have been around 1,284TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,449TWh, implying 12.8% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 47.9% – thanks to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Hungary’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 19.3TWh, or 1.50% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 1.41% of thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel in Hungary, accounting for an estimated 40.6% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED). It is followed by oil at 32.1%, nuclear at 15.2% and coal with a 10.5% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn toe by 2015, representing 17.00% growth over the period 2010-2015. Hungary’s estimated 2010 market share of 1.77% is set to ease to 1.76% by 2015.
Hungary’s estimated 15.4TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 16.5TWh by 2015, with its share of the CEE nuclear market falling from 4.40% to 3.55%.
Hungary is now ranked seventh behind Slovakia in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its limited market size, modest growth prospects, high level of energy import dependence, and limited progress towards the use of renewables. Country risk factors offset some of the industry weakness, but Hungary seems destined to jockey for position near the bottom of the table for the foreseeable future.
BMI forecasts Hungarian real GDP growth averaging 2.4% a year between 2010 and 2015, with an increase of 2.3% expected in 2011. The country’s population is expected to contract from 10.0mn to 9.9mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by 39% and 16% respectively. Hungary’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 32.8TWh in 2010 to 37.7TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a supply shortage easing from an estimated 4.9TWh to 4.2TWh, assuming 2.9% annual growth in power generation between 2010 and 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Hungarian electricity generation of 34.3%, which is one of the slowest projected growth rates for the CEE region. This equates to 14.7% in the 2015- 2020 period, down from 17.1% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to ease from 16.2% in 2010-2015 to 13.6%, representing 31.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 200% in hydro-power use (from a low base) during 2010-2020 is one key element of generation growth, with nuclear usage up by 23%. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 14.7% between 2010 and 2020. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
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