|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Hong Kong Freight Transport Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 42
Hong Kong Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's freight transportation industry.
According to the HKTDC, Hong Kong’s economy has displayed great resilience through the financial crisis. For 2009 as a whole, GDP fell only by 2.8% in real terms. In the first three quarters of 2010, economic recovery became entrenched, with GDP increased remarkably by 7.1%, year-on-year (y-o-y) in real terms and is expected to be 6.5% for the full year. Total exports apparently rebounded strongly in the first nine months of 2010, growing by 26.1% year-on-year. BMI expectations for the economy are somewhat more conservative than this with nominal exports only achieving 9.45% growth in 2010. The Hong Kong authorities point to the significant recovery in retail sales over recent months, reflecting a return of consumer confidence and strong inflows of tourists. In the first nine months of 2010, the value of retail sales increased by 17.9% y-o-y, compared to a 0.6% rise in 2009. The labour market conditions have also gradually improved. The unemployment rate has steadily come down in recent months, registering 4.2% for the three-month period ending September 2010, compared to 5.4% for 2009.
Meanwhile, consumer prices, after a 0.5% increase in 2009, rose by 2.3% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2010.
Hong Kong is still the most important gateway for the Chinese mainland. If re-exports to and from the Chinese mainland are included, about 18% of the mainland's foreign trade were handled via Hong Kong in 2009. The figure will be higher if transhipment of goods to and from the mainland via Hong Kong is also included. According to the HKSAR government statistics, in 2009, 62% of re-exports were of China origin and 51% were destined for the Chinese mainland. According to China's Customs statistics, Hong Kong is the third largest trading partner of the Chinese mainland after the US and Japan, accounting for 8% of its total trade in 2009.
The continued recovery of Hong Kong trade is dependent on no further shocks or relapses in the world economy. China has also put the breaks on to stop its economy from overheating. Consumers across the globe have cut back on their spending or shifted down to cheaper products and a recovery in Europe and the US still looks feeble. Hong Kong exporters are facing rising labour shortages and surging labour costs, their profit margins will be further reduced if the renminbi appreciates. Competition from other Asian suppliers is expected to grow.
Across the main freight modes, the current picture is one of fairly clear recovery, with the medium-term outlook set at moderate-to-good. Hong Kong’s airfreight is a confusing picture with some companies expanding their flights and saying that business is strong. Other companies outside Hong Kong suggest that trade in the pick season which started in September is down as much as -20%. BMI expects that air freight will grow 5.7% in 2010 to 3.541mn tonnes and to remain in the 4-5% growth range over the forecast period. Road transport growth is expected to be strong, as Hong Kong integrates its trucking industry more closely with mainland China. In the five years to 2014, we expect annual road freight volume to expand by an average of 10.4%. Rail freight will grow from a very low base, as the sector begins to develop at an average of 19% over the forecast period. Maritime trade is expected to grow solidly at 3.5% to 251.5mn tonnes in 2010. Given strong competition from ports in the Chinese mainland, our medium-term forecast is for tonnage to grow by an annual average of 2.8%.
Asian carriers are in a strong long-term position as a result of the exploding demand in China and India. The prospects for airfreight over the forecast period are strong, particularly the regional trade in electronics, IT products and express/parcel delivery. A number of companies have increased their operations to and from Hong Kong and so future competition will increase. Future infrastructure projects such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link (XRL) mean that over the long-term Hong Kong’s links with China will be improved and more freight will use Hong Kong as a gateway. Although, Hong Kong will never re-establish the position it held in the 1990s as the single ‘gateway’ for trade into China. Private investment in airport cargo facilities and aircraft will also allow a greater flow of airfreight and reinforce Hong Kong’s position as a regional hub in the long-term.
The main risk to our freight forecasts over 2010 for Hong Kong is the threat of a ‘double-dip’ recession in the global economy. Such a downturn could be led by one, or by a combination, of the world economy's leading power centres such as in Asia that could overheat followed by an enforced slowdown in China.
Europe where eurozone debt worries could trigger a further downturn or the USA where there are potential problems with the unwinding of the current fiscal and monetary incentives.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
