|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Netherlands Food and Drink Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 66
Business Monitor International's Netherlands Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Netherlands's food and drink industry.
Encouraged by a resurgence in export orders, we have raised our 2010 growth forecast for the Netherlands from 1.0% to 1.7%. Looking into 2011 though, we still only expect a pick up to 2.2%. The Dutch consumer sector, however, appears to be better positioned than many of its regional neighbours to register growth beyond 2010. Unlike its counterparts in Spain and the UK, confidence will not continue to be hit by a deflating housing bubble, while consumer credit levels leading up to the global economic crisis were less stretched than in many neighbouring markets and therefore have more room for growth.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 per capita food consumption = +3.0%; forecast to 2015 = +16.2%
- 2011 alcoholic drink sales = +4.5%; forecast to 2015 = +22.8%
- 2011 soft drink sales =+5.1% ; forecast to 2015 = +24.3%
- 2011 mass grocery retail sales = +6.3%; forecast to 2015 = +30.1%
Key Industry Trends & Developments
Companies Raise Prices in Response to Increased Commodity Costs
– In recent months, several Dutchbased food companies have announced plans to increase product prices because of the need to offset increased commodity costs. For example, Anglo-Dutch consumer goods giant Unilever has said that prices will rise to the end of the year, although the firm claims individual retailers will have to decide whether these are passed on to the consumer. Similarly, Dutch bakery group CSM has warned that it has started to increase its prices in the wake of a ''substantial'' rise in commodity costs. The company said higher raw material prices were already hitting its operating profit and forecast a rise in the price of its main commodities by 20% to 30%. Heineken Still Sees Growth in European Beer Market
– In autumn 2010, the CEO of Dutch brewing giant Heineken, Jean-Francois van Boxmeer, said that the firm still sees Europe as a growth market and that the company plans to use speciality beers to grow its value sales in the region. These comments come despite Heineken's sales in Western Europe falling by 2.6% (on an organic basis) in the first half of 2010.
However, with the firm still generating around 52% of its revenues and 32% of its earnings before interest and tax in this market, it clearly cannot afford to simply give up on the region, and will look to harness the growing appreciation of speciality and regional beers to return its European sales to growth.
Key Risks to Outlook Export Recovery
– There are upside risks to our short-term forecasts as the timing of the anticipated slowdown in export growth is difficult to gauge. It is our core view that export growth will decelerate in the coming months as economic activity in the eurozone stays stuck in a low gear. However, the timing of this slowdown is difficult to gauge. We note upside risks to our GDP forecasts given the strong performance of the Dutch export sector to date, which could extend into 2011. Over the longer run the Netherlands' relatively competitive external sector should allow it to take advantage of rising demand in emerging markets, boosting long term growth.
Eurozone debt crisis
– On the other hand, the ongoing eurozone crisis poses a threat to investor confidence towards the entire region. The risk of a major sovereign credit event in Europe would further damage confidence, putting significant pressure on export demand and therefore on the Netherland’s economic growth and consumption.'
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
