Vietnam Real Estate Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 70
Vietnam Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's Real Estate industry.
Vietnam’s commercial real estate market has been overshadowed by a property glut. Rental rates fell bydouble-digit rates through 2009 – in each of the three cities for which we gathered data (Hanoi, Ho ChiMinh City and Da Nang) and across all three sub-sectors. Vacancy rates are generally running at around30%.
Normally, in an economy that has been growing so quickly that the authorities are tightening both fiscaland monetary policy in order to curb inflationary pressures, rents and capital values would fall until muchof the vacant space is absorbed.
Although the government intervened to re-regulate the commercial real estate sector in early 2010, it wasnot clear that this process of adjustment was under way in Vietnam. At present there are clear signs thatthe market is stabilising but uncertainties still remain. Our in-country sources indicated that Da Nangoffice and Hanoi industrial rents had increased dramatically since 2009. Elsewhere, rents trackedsideways or rose by single digit amounts.
Looking forward, our sources anticipate that rents will continueto move sideways through 2011 before picking up towards the end of the forecast period in 2015. Theyare less optimistic about the prospects for higher rents in Hanoi than in Ho Chi Minh City or Da Nang.Our view is that the government has allowed market forces to operate in at least some of the market. Oneof the key findings from our mid-2010 interviews was that yields had risen sharply in the office andindustrial sub-sectors of Hanoi and Da Nang. The implication is that there has been a major adjustment inthese sub-sectors – in the form of a slump in capital values.
It may well be that 2010 comes to be seen as the year in which the key trends in Vietnam’s commercialreal estate sector became much clearer. A substantial over-supply of property is being absorbed –although official intervention is still preventing across the board adjustments in rents, yields and capitalvalues. Conditions in particular sub-sectors remain volatile – but yields are in general likely to movesideways or downwards over the coming four years.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Real Estate/Construction SWOT
Vietnam Economics SWOT
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Regional Real Estate Overview
Table: Asia Pacific’s Office Markets At A Glance – Rents, 2009-2011 (US$ per square metre per month)
Table: Asia Pacific’s Retail Markets At A Glance – Rents, 2009-2011 (US$ per square metre per month)
Table: Asia Pacific’s Industrial Markets At A Glance – Rents, 2009-2011 (US$ per square metre per month)
Real Estate Market Overview
Table: Vietnam Real Estate Markets – Rentals in m²/month, 2008 And 2009 (US$)
Table: Vietnam Real Estate Markets – Net Yield (%)
Vietnam Real Estate Markets – Terms of Contract/Lease
Vietnam Real Estate Markets – Available Space (m²) and Vacant Space (%)
Forecast Scenario
Real Estate Outlook
Table: Vietnam Real Estate Markets - Rentals in m²/month, 2009-2011 (US$)
Table: Vietnam Real Estate Markets – Forecast Net Yield, 2009-2015 (%)
Construction Industry Outlook
Table: Vietnam Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007-2015
Table: Vietnam Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Vietnam’s Macroeconomic Outlook
Vietnam – Economic Activity, 2007-2015
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
Vietnam’s RECBER
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Asia Pacific
Table: Design And Construction Rating
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
Vietnam’s Business Environment
Table: BMI Business And Operational Risk Ratings
Table: BMI Legal Framework Ratings
Table: Labour Force Quality
Table: Annual FDI Inflows Into Asia, 2006-2008
Table: BMI Trade Ratings
Table: Vietnam Top Export Destinations, 2001-2008 (US$mn)
Company Monitor
Becamex IDC Corp
COTECCONS Group
Housing And Urban Development Corp (HUD)
Nam Cuong
Song Da Construction Corporation
Vietnam Construction And Import-Export Corporation (Vinaconex)
Vietnam Construction And Machinery Installation Corporation (Lilama)
Vincom
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Project Finance Ratings Indicators
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
Sources
- Becamex IDC Corp
- COTECCONS Group
- Housing And Urban Development Corp (HUD)
- Nam Cuong
- Song Da Construction Corporation
- Vietnam Construction And Import-Export Corporation (Vinaconex)
- Vietnam Construction And Machinery Installation Corporation (Lilama)
- Vincom
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