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Lithuania Autos Report 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 44
Business Monitor International's Lithuania Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Lithuania's automotive industry.
BMI expects the Lithuanian car market to grow substantially over the coming five years. In our five-year forecast, we expect passenger car sales to more than double from a forecast 2010 sales level of 6,493 to 13,192 in 2015. Light commercial vehicle sales are expected to more than triple from 503 in 2010 to 1,882 in 2015 while the sales of heavy trucks is expected to increase ten-fold from 271 in 2010 to 2,105 in 2015.
Even this growth would not, however, take sales back to pre-crisis levels. In 2008 22,217 passenger cars were sold, 3,095 light commercial vehicles and 6,558 heavy commercial vehicles. This is largely due to our expectation that vehicle credit will continue to be far tighter than in the years before the economic crisis. However, what recovery does occur will be driven by a generally improving economy. Consumer spending is expected to stabilise in 2011 and the economy as a whole is likely to show increasing strength through 2011. With the recovery in the broader economy, firms and individuals are likely to be less reluctant to part with cash to purchase vehicles. Nonetheless, a full recovery is almost certainly impossible unless car financing is once more accessible for the broader Lithuanian population.
Registrations of new cars in Lithuania have grown by 53.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 724. This figure is one of the highest in Europe and comes despite continued squeeze on consumer spending. Overall August 2010 saw retail spending in Lithuania drop 2.1% y-o-y. While this is the lowest figure for 23 months, it masks a 17.3% increase in spending in the car and car parts market. The Lithuanian auto market is increasingly rebounding after drastic falls in sales due to the onset of the financial crisis which hit largely credit-fuelled sales in the Baltic state.
Used car imports grew substantially in the first half of 2010. H110 statistics from Regitra show that 82,185 used cars were imported into Lithuania, 10.9% higher y-o-y. Only 6,150 new cars were imported, meaning that overall car imports grew by 6.1%. The bulk of the cars were imported from Germany, with 37% (26,380 units) originating there; 16% originated from Italy, with 11,290 and 15% from France with 10,687. The most popular models were the Volkswagen (VW) Passat, with 5,665 being imported, the VW Golf with 3,253 units and the Opel Astra with 3,216 imported.
Used cars are popular with Lithuanians given the difficult economic circumstances in the country. New car sales have been limited due to the far greater difficulty consumers face in trying to secure credit – but these issues are not as problematic for used cars.
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