Bulgaria Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, December 2010, Pages: 82
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's defence and security industry.
Bulgaria’s defence and security position continues to be dominated by Russo-European relations. The administration’s tough stance towards Russia has raised tensions. Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and his GERB party have signalled an intention to stand behind European projects such as the EU led Nabucco pipeline, helping to boost his popularity in the polls.
Rising unemployment and slow progress on stamping out corruption has, nonetheless, made the long term political outlook for the ruling party uncertain. Opinion polls suggest that the government is increasingly difficult making to harder to pass new spending. This is likely to have an effect on defence budgets in the medium term, with cuts extremely likely. Going forward, we warn that a failure to reform public institutions and eradicate graft, as well as keeping a lid on the fiscal deficit, could see a further deterioration in government support as well as potential aid suspensions from the EU.
There has also been some disagreement on the beneficial role of the EU on the Bulgarian defence industry. In October 2010, the director of Bulgaria's Economic Policy Directorate stated that the European Commission's (EC's) Defence and Security Procurement Directive "does not protect the interests of the European Defence Technological Industrial Base (EDTIB)", according to Jane's.
Following the sharp slide into recession over the last two years, we expect Bulgaria to endure further negative growth in 2011. Indeed, with domestic demand still weak and being further depressed by the government's internal devaluation policy, we see few sources of growth this year. Moreover, over the medium term, we expect the economy to settle on a lower growth trajectory relative to the lead up to the economic downturn.
Bulgaria’s defence industry is currently surrounded by uncertainty, as many older and less agile companies look set to be left behind or disappear once the recession clears. The government’s direction for the industry is focused on high tech solutions and as such companies that can supply these demands look set to prosper. NATO-compatible companies such as Arcus and Arsenal can reasonably hope to win contracts supplying the Bulgarian army with small arms. In addition, membership of NATO and the EU are pushing the military increasingly towards professionalisation.
Topics Include:
efence and security, defence, security, terrorism, conflict, physical safety, armed forces, arms trade, defence budget, navy, air force, international deployments, weapons of mass destruction, defence sector, military, police, defence industry, arms industry, special forces, army, nuclear weapons, NATO, terrorist, foreign deployment and troops
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Security SWOT
Bulgaria Defence Industry SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots
Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011
Latin America: More Of The Same
Western Europe
Central Europe
South Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
Wild Cards
Global Security Outlook
Regional Political Risk Analysis
The Future Of NATO
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Bulgaria’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations
Armed Forces And Government Expenditure
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (Including conscripted, ‘000)
Modernisation Programme
International Deployment
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Key Players In Bulgaria’s Defence Sector, 2008
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Bulgaria’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Government Expenditure
Table: Bulgaria’s Defence Expenditure, 2008 = 2015
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Bulgaria – Economic Activity, 2007-2015
Company Profiles
Arcus
Arsenal
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources
- Arcus
- Arsenal
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