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Egypt Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 85
The Egypt Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's defence and security industry.
The security situation in Egypt always has as its backdrop Egypt’s role in the Arab world and its geographical position adjacent to the Middle East. It has done so since Gamal Abdel Nasser’s time as Egyptian President (1956-1970) and his appeal to a pan-Arabist and Islamic community.
This coming year however is more likely to be dominated by internal political considerations in the lead up to Parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2010 and the presidential election in September 2011. There is uncertainty regarding the health of Hosni Mubarak, President since 1981, and no clear picture as to the succession.
In the parliamentary elections the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) is expected to further consolidate its hold on power by winning back some of the seats lost to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in the previous election. The keen interest will focus on the internal power struggle within the NDP. If the older, established guard, increases its power then their resistance to any economic reforms or opening up of the economy will prevent much needed change from taking place. On the other hand, there is a group of increasingly assertive segment of younger politicians that have strong links to the business community, and have been instrumental in pushing through economic reforms since 2004. If they are successful in challenging the present elite in the party then more change could occur somewhat more quickly, opening up opportunities in the economy and the defence equipment sector.
Hosni Mubarak has no widely supported candidate to succeed him. While there has been a move to endorse his son, Gamal, this is opposed by the older faction and also, to an extent, by the military due to the son’s lack of a military background.
While we believe concerns surrounding the risks of a large-scale uptick in public unrest are overblown, we have nevertheless downgraded Egypt's short-term political risk rating to 59.4 (from 64.8) out of 100. Economically, we remain cautiously optimistic. Domestic demand is recovering however exports into the Eurozone, which account for some 70% of Egypt’s total exports, will remain sluggish due to economic conditions in the various eurozone countries.
Improving US relations has been a key part of Egypt’s external security success in recent years. Barack Obama’s presidency has seen a considerable change in US policy with support for Egyptian autonomy rather than imposition of foreign policies. There has also been a cooling in US relations with Israel, perhaps reducing the risk of provocative Israeli military operations in the Middle East. The country’s border with the Gaza strip remains a key tension point and highlights how much Egypt’s overall security situation is still tied to the vicissitudes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Cairo’s construction of a steel wall, ostensibly to crack down on smuggling, along its border with Gaza and its highly publicised harassment of an aid convoy to Gaza in December 2009 are at odds with the solidarity it says it has with the Palestinian cause. Such solidarity is strongly felt by the Egyptian public and the government is therefore taking a risk by openly undermining Gaza’s security and nationalist aspirations so overtly.
BMI’s City Terrorism Rating (CTR) system provides an at a glance assessment of the risk of a terrorist attack in a given city by weighing a number of significant measures. BMI assesses the CTR for Cairo at 62.5 out of 100 – the 10th highest of the 23 rated cities in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region. The CTR is based on BMI’s detailed Terrorism Rating for the country taken as a whole and an assessment of the prevalence and threat of terrorism for the city in question. This latter assessment takes into account the frequency of past attacks, whether the city is a target for terrorist activity and the likely extent of possible future terrorist attacks.
Topics Include:
Defence and security, defence, security, terrorism, conflict, physical safety, armed forces, arms trade, defence budget, navy, air force, international deployments, weapons of mass destruction, defence sector, military, police, defence industry, arms industry, special forces, army, nuclear weapons, NATO, terrorist, foreign deployment and troops
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