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India Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 69
India Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's power industry.
BMI’s latest India Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 12.20% of Asia Pacificregional power generation by 2015, with a potential supply shortfall after system losses. BMI’s AsiaPacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of4.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015,representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. India’sthermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 737TWh, or 11.99% of the regional total. By2015, India is expected to account for 11.74% of regional thermal generation.
For India, coal is the dominant fuel, in 2010 accounting for an estimated 50.8% of primary energydemand (PED), followed by oil at 31.0%, gas at 10.0% and hydro-power at 6.3%. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.6% growthfrom the estimated 2010 level. India’s estimated 2010 market share of 11.29% is set to rise to 11.84% by2015. The country’s estimated 24TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 65TWh by 2015,with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from 4.42% to 8.31% over the period.
India is ranked equal fourth alongside Vietnam in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings,thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. The gap between India and China (in thirdplace) is six points. While China is expected eventually to pull away and challenge Australia at the top ofthe table, India may be able to catch Japan (second place) during the next several quarters. Country riskfactors offset some of the industry’s strength, but the country seems destined over the longer term toshadow China near the top of the table.
BMI is now forecasting Indian real GDP growth averaging 8.05% per annum between 2010 and 2015,with the 2011 assumption being 8.10%. The population is expected to expand from 1.17bn to 1.25bn overthe period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 123% and36% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 684TWhin 2010 to 920TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, wesee a possible shortfall of 20TWh in 2015 (assuming 5.4% average annual growth in electricitygeneration in 2010-2015).
Between 2010 and 2020 we are forecasting an increase in Indian electricity generation of 65.2%, which isabove the average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 26.4% in the 2015-2020 period, down from30.7% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 32.2% in 2010-2015 to 30.1%, representing 71.9%for the entire forecast period. An increase of 69% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is a key elementof generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 45% between 2010 and 2020, withnuclear consumption up by 338%. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at theend of this report.
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