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Indonesia Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 56
Indonesia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's power industry.
The new Indonesia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.13% of AsiaPacific regional power generation by 2015. Owing to system inefficiencies and wastage, the countrystruggles to provide adequate generation for its needs. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumptionfor 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.6% over the previous year. We areforecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.Indonesia’s thermal generation in 2010 is estimated at 147TWh, or 2.39% of the regional total. By 2015,the country is expected to account for 2.55% of the region’s thermal generation.
Oil is the dominant fuel in Indonesia, accounting for an estimated 45.9% of primary energy demand(PED) in 2010, followed by coal at 25.1%, gas at 25.0% and hydro at 2.3%. Regional energy demand isforecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.6% growth from theestimated 2010 level. Indonesia’s estimated 2010 market share of 3.14% is set to fall to 3.09% by 2015.Indonesia is moving ahead slowly with controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant, whichcould be operational by 2017.
In BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, Indonesia is now ranked equal seventh,alongside Pakistan and Thailand. This reflects its low level of energy import dependence and its healthypower consumption growth prospects. However, several country risk factors offset the industry strength,and the country may struggle to keep up with Pakistan over the longer term. The Philippines, just onepoint below, also poses a threat over the medium term.
BMI is now forecasting Indonesian real GDP growth averaging 6.08% per annum between 2010 and2015, with a 2011 assumption of 5.90%. Population is expected to expand from 233mn to over 248mnover the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 88%and 24% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated141.7Wh in 2010 to 187.2TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and systemlosses, we see a possible shortfall of 2TWh in 2015, assuming 5.4% annual average growth in electricitygeneration during 2010-2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Indonesian electricity generation of 67.0%,which is above average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 28.4% in the 2015-2020 period, downfrom 30.1% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 23.4% in 2010-2015 to 24.6%, representing53.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 31% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is a majorelement of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 70% between 2010 and2020. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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