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Malaysia Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 63
Malaysia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Malaysia's power industry.
The new BMI Malaysia Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.42% of Asia Pacificregional power generation by 2015, with a broadly balanced domestic market even after system losses etc.BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing anincrease of 4.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by2015, representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.Malaysia’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 99.5TWh, or 1.62% of the regionaltotal. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 1.52% of thermal generation.
Malaysia’s dominant fuel is gas, which accounts for an estimated 50.6% of 2010 primary energy demand(PED), followed by oil at 39.1%, coal at 7.2% and hydro with a 2.7% share of PED. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.6% growthfrom the estimated 2010 level. Malaysia’s estimated 2010 market share of 1.30% is set to fall to 1.21% by2015. Malaysia’s estimated 10.1TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 15.3TWh by 2015,with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market rising from 1.03% to 1.18%. There is no commercialnuclear industry.
Malaysia now shares seventh place with Pakistan, Thailand and Indonesia in BMI’s updated PowerBusiness Environment Ratings, in spite of its low level of energy import dependence and good powerconsumption growth prospects. Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but thecountry is in a good position in the near term to keep clear of the Philippines below.
BMI is now forecasting Malaysian real GDP growth averaging 5.07% per annum (pa) between 2010 and2015, with an increase of 3.40% assumed for 2011. Population is expected to expand from 27.9mn to30.0mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase33% and 18% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated99.1TWh in 2010 to 126.1TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and systemlosses, we see a slight supply surplus in 2015, assuming 4.5% average annual growth in electricitygeneration during 2010-2015.
Between 2010 and 200, we are forecasting an increase in Malaysian electricity generation of 58.5%,which is above average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 26.2% in the 2015-2020 period, upfrom 25.6% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 15.9% in 2010-2015 to 18.2% representing37.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 117% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is a keyelement of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 37% between 2010 and2020. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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