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Vietnam Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 64
Vietnam Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's power industry.
The new Vietnam Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.60% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2015, with the risk of power shortages if generation expansion falls below the required level, thanks partly to system inefficiencies. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Vietnam’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 53.5TWh, or 0.87% of the regional total. By 2015,the country is expected to account for 1.15% of regional thermal generation.
For Vietnam, oil will have accounted for an estimated 20.4% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED),followed by gas at 8.5%, coal at 18.6% and hydro-power with 4.3%. Direct burning of wood and waste materials contributes a further 48.5% to overall energy consumption. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated2010 level. Vietnam’s estimated 2010 energy market share of 1.84% is set to rise to 2.19% by 2015. An estimated 40TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 61TWh by 2015, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market rising from 4.06% to 4.73% over the period.
Vietnam shares fourth place with India in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to the growth potential of power consumption and energy demand, plus healthy scores in several other categories. It should be able to pull further away from Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Pakistan below, and has longer-term potential to challenge Japan above it.
BMI is now forecasting Vietnamese real GDP growth averaging 6.57% per annum (pa) between 2010and 2015, with a 2011 assumption of 5.60%. The population is expected to expand from 88.4mn to92.8mn by 2015, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption set to increase by 90% and 58%respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 90TWh in 2010 to 149TWh in2015. After power industry usage and transmission losses, there is scope for a supply shortfall of 6TWh by2015 if generation grows at no more than our assumed average annual rate of 10.6% (2010-2015). There is, however, a real risk of persistent electricity shortages if the power industry cannot deliver adequate new capacity as demand soars.
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