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Russia Shipping Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 100
Russia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's shipping industry.
Having beaten the downturn by posting growth in 2009, the port of Novorossiysk has instead been hit in2010, when its Russian peers are starting to recover. January-October data record a year-on-year (y-o-y)decline of 12%. This fall is partly attributable to the country's grain export ban, the shipment of which Novorossiysk caters for.
While total throughput volumes might be down, the port's box throughput has been rocketing. January-October 2010 throughput volumes were up 95% y-o-y, indicating that the port is seeking to diversify its client base after its grain shipment sector was hit.
BMI's country risk desk is forecasting a positive outlook for the country in 2011, with GDP growth of4.3% projected in 2011. This optimistic outlook is feeding through into our throughput forecasts at the nation’s ports. 2011 according to our forecasts will see total throughput at Novorossiysk begin to recover from the projected decline in 2010, while the port's box volumes are predicted to reach historical highs. At Russia's largest container port, the port of St Petersburg, BMI predicts that 2011 will be the year that both box volumes and total throughput return to pre-downturn levels, creating a strong base from which throughput volumes are expected to continue increasing in the mid term.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Novorossiysk tonnage throughput forecast +1.8%, following projected decline of4.46% in 2010.
- 2011 port of St Petersburg container throughput forecast +9.28% following projected growth of40.8% in 2010.
- 2011 total trade growth forecast at 6%.
Key Industry Trends
NSR Brings Russia And China Closer - The growing importance of the Northern Sea Route, offering Russia a quicker link to the Chinese and Asian markets, is leading to major investment on both the port and shipping fronts. The port of Murmansk stands to develop most from the increased interest. While in the short term we believe that the majority of the shipments will be from Russia to Asia, mainly China and oil and gas related, with the nation's main tanker operator, Sovcomflot, expanding its exposure to theNSR in the long term, if ice-free summers continue, Murmansk could develop its container potential with goods shipped from China to Russia along a quicker route.
International Terminal Operators Eye Russian Ports - With both DP World and Gulftainer entering Russia, surely their peers will follow. Privatisation of port stakes in the country could spur other box terminal operators getting involved, although Russia does have its own terminal operators and so competition could be fierce.
Risks To Outlook
A sudden change in trade strategy in Moscow could quickly work its way down to port level, an issue displayed at the port of Novorossiysk, where throughput has been hit by Russia's grain-export ban. Nonews as of yet as to how long the ban will be in place, but it looks as though it will continue to have a negative impact at the port of Novorossiysk, at least into the middle of 2011, therefore offering downside risk to our current forecast. To mitigate this type of risk ports need to diversify and not be too reliant on one form of cargo.
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