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Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 105
The Argentina Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's oil and gas industry.
The latest Argentina Oil & Gas Report from the publisher forecasts that the country will account for 6.15% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 5.63% of supply. Latin American regional use will average an estimated 7.80mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 7.96mn b/d in 2011 and reach 8.49mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production in 2010 should average an estimated 10.02mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.68mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.37mn b/d. This total falls to an estimated 2.29mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to slip further to 2.22mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 208.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 263.9bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 264.3bcm in 2015, and implies 0.4bcm of net imports at the end of the period. Argentina’s share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been an estimated 21.34%, while its share of production was 19.45%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.50%, with the country accounting for 15.71% of supply.
For 2011, there is considerable oil demand and oil price uncertainty, but still a very strong possibility that oil will trend higher. Economic growth may have been subdued late in 2010 and into early 2011, but should still support meaningful oil demand increases. Non-OPEC supply is likely to emerge only slightly higher so, with continued OPEC discipline, the foundations have been laid for an oil price rise, albeit falling well short of the improvement seen this year. It seems likely that the 2010 average OPEC basket price will have emerged around the US$77.00 per barrel (bbl) level, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) gain of approximately 27%. Progress towards at least US$80 is seen as achievable in 2011.
Argentina’s real GDP is forecast by BMI to rise by 4.3% in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7% forecast in 2010-2015. State entity Enarsa acts as partner to international oil companies (IOCs) in supporting output growth efforts, operating alongside regional heavyweight Repsol YPF and others. We are assuming oil production peaking at no more than 685,000b/d in 2013, with the country expected to pump 665,000b/d in 2010. Beyond the 2009 dip, consumption is forecast to increase by around 1.5% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 522,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The crude oil export capability would therefore be around 136,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 43bcm in 2010 to a high of 46bcm during the period, resulting in the need for 10bcm of net imports by 2015, if demand grows by 15.6%.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in Argentine oil production of 10.58%, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 685,000b/d, before falling steadily to 595,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 14.34%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 549,000 b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 43.0bcm in 2010 to a peak of 46.0bcm in 2012/2013, before slipping back to 32.1bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 34.04%, this provides a need for net imports to rise to 27.5bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Argentina now shares fourth place with Venezuela in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) rating, which combines upstream and downstream scores. This reflects the country’s sixth place in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings, behind Trinidad and Tobago (T&T). Its gas resources, largely privatised oil sector, licensing regime and competitive landscape work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by an absence of growth potential, asset maturity and unappealing risk environment. Medium-term scope exists for Argentina to overtake Trinidad, and it should be safe from Ecuador some six points below. Argentina is well up the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its privatised refining and marketing segment, substantial capacity and competitive environment, offset by only moderate growth potential and a relatively high level of retail site intensity. It holds third place, behind Colombia, in the regional rankings.
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