|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 128
The Nigeria Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Nigeria's oil and gas industry.
This latest Nigeria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.97% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 22.76% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 3.81mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and will in 2010 average an estimated 10.18mn b/d. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasipolitical issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 123.4bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. In 2010 Nigeria will consume an estimated 10.54% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 14.78% by 2015. It will have contributed 15.95% to estimated 2010 regional gas production and, by 2015, will account for 18.29% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
Nigerian real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 7.5% in 2010. We are forecasting average annual growth of 7.5% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 288,000b/d in 2010 to 395,000b/d in 2015, representing 6-7% average annual growth. State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) accounts for more than 50% of oil production and over 40% of gas supply, but a large number of international oil company (IOC) partners contribute to a forecast rise in oil and liquids production from an estimated 2.34mn b/d in 2010 to 2.75mn b/d by 2015 – subject to fresh rebel attacks on infrastructure and OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach 59bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 35bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise dramatically to around 26bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of no more than 33bcm. This threatens the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export business unless fresh supplies can be located and developed.
Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast an increase in Nigerian oil and gas liquids production of 49.6%, with volumes rising steadily to 3.50mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 96.6%, with growth slowing to an assumed 7.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 567,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 80bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 246% between 2010 and 2020, export potential should increase to 35bcm, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Nigeria now holds fifth place in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country now shares third place with South Africa in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings. It may struggle to keep ahead of fifth-placed Angola over the medium term, as its West African rival has greater potential for advancement and is just one point behind. Nigeria’s score benefits from its substantial oil and gas reserves, its oil and gas production growth outlook, and high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR). The competitive landscape features numerous non-state companies, and licensing terms are generally acceptable, although potentially under review. However, negative country risk factors undermine the hydrocarbons-specific strength. Nigeria is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, with a few high scores but near-term progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked fourth, ahead of Angola, thanks largely to poor country risk factors that undermine further a regulated and largely statecontrolled industry.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
