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Germany Freight Transport Report 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 36
Germany Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's freight transportation industry.
German container line Hapag-Lloyd joined other major box lines by returning to the black, it was reported in November 2010. BMI noted that the trend of rate increases rather than volume increases driving container lines' return to profit was once again evident in Hapag-Lloyd's results. The Q310 results showed that Hapag-Lloyd's revenue was up 68.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to EUR1.78bn, bringing the shipping line's revenue for the first three quarters of 2010 to EUR4.7bn. Operating earnings were back inthe black at EUR263mn for Q310, a considerable recovery after the EUR184.5mn loss the company posted in Q309. Total operating profits for the first nine months of 2010 was EUR506mn, with Hapag-Lloyd's chairman, Michael Behrendt, stating 'after sustaining heavy losses last year, the first nine months of this year have seen the best result in the history of our company'. Cost cutting, rate increases and anuptick in volumes all played a role in dragging Hapag-Lloyd into the black.
The German economy has been performing well in 2010, but a slowdown is on the cards for 2011, which will affect the operating environment for freight transport companies. Surveys of industrial and service companies in the second half of 2010 detected growing concern over the sustainability of the US economic recovery and the Greek sovereign debt overhang; Ireland's financial crisis added to the more sombre outlook for the euro zone, a key export market for Germany. As a result of our analysis, BMI forecasts 2010 GDP growth of 2.8% (following ae 4.7% contraction in 2009). Our outlook for 2011 is for the recovery to lose a lot of its impetus, with growth cooling to 1.6%, before edging up to 1.8% in 2012.
In the five years to 2015 we expected growth to average 1.7% a year, implying Germany will perform rather solidly but unexcitingly. Like other mature economies in the euro zone, Germany will struggle with defacto 2.0% annual growth 'ceiling'.
After a trough in 2009, when German air cargo volume dropped by 6.4%, we saw a weak recovery in2010 (forecast growth of 0.8%) which we forecast will gather some vigour going into 2011, with growth of 6.0% to 3.567mn tonnes.
Against the background of a weak recovery in European trade, Germany's main bulk port at Hamburgwill see tonnage growth of -8% in 2011, to reach a total of 83.18mn tonnes. At Bremen, now Germany's Biggest container port, we forecast growth of 5.9% to 4.495mn TEUs.In terms of cargo volume, Germany's railway system experienced a sharp decline in 2009 (down 16.0%).We forecast a strong recovery in 2010, with growth of 16.2%. But for 2011 we believe the pace will slow,with volume growing by 3.7% to 375.935mn tonnes.
In 2011 we expect total tonnage volume carried by road to be virtually unchanged on the preceding year,up 0.04% to 2.776bn tonnes, following a 0.2% gain in 2010. Growth over the two years will be insufficient to offset the 10.0% drop in volume in 2009. In fact the 2008 tonnage peak of 3.078bn tonnes will not be emulated during our forecast period, to 2015. Freight carried by road (volume x distance) is forecast to be virtually unchanged in 2011 compared to 2010, at 299.21bntkm.
In real terms German trade slumped by 12.2% in 2009, had a strong recovery in 2010 (forecast growth of12.8%), and is set to fall back a little in 2011 (5.5%). In nominal terms we expect imports to total US$1.392trn in 2011, with exports significantly higher, at US$1.632trn. Germany will therefore continue to register its traditional sizeable trade surplus.
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