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Estonia Shipping Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 95
Business Monitor International's Estonia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Estonia's freight transportation industry.
Tonnage throughput at Estonia's main port of Tallinn is on course to post another year of growth in 2010 after gaining the distinction of being one of the few ports in Europe to beat the global downturn in trade in 2009 with tonnage at the facility increasing by 8.67% year-on-year (y-o-y).
The latest year-to-date figures (January-October 2010) saw tonnage volumes at the port of Tallinn for the first 10 months of 2010 increase by 17% on the same period in 2009 and box levels rise by 16%, indicating that the port is on course to record further full-year increases in throughput and reach BMI's throughput targets for 2010.
This offers a sound base for BMI's forecasts for port throughput at Tallinn for 2011 and for the rest of the mid term. The port's total tonnage throughput forecast is, however, dependent on Russia continuing to send oil via the port, something that looks likely to change in the mid-term as the Russian port of Ust-Luga develops.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Tallinn tonnage throughput forecast to grow 5.8%, following projected growth of 15.4% in 2010.
- 2011 port of Tallinn container throughput forecast to grow 5.5% following projected growth of 15.8% in 2010.
- 2011 total trade growth forecast at 10%.
Key Industry Trends
Number One In The Baltics - Recovering well from the downturn and posting the highest growth in total tonnage y-o-y among its Baltic state peers, the port of Tallinn is still out on top.
The Ust-Luga Effect Not Felt Yet - Considerable y-o-y growth at the port appears to display that the drop in volumes anticipated with the development of Ust-Luga has yet to materialise. That is not to say that Estonia's maritime and rail sector will not feel the negative impact when Russian oil volumes are rerouted to Ust-Luga, but question marks still hang over when this will happen and how much oil will be sent via the domestic port rather than Tallinn.
Estonia Shipping Report Q1 2011
Potential downside risk, as mentioned, with the threat of Russia re-routing its oil via its developing domestic port, Ust-Luga rather than Tallinn. The full impact has yet to be accessed as flows via Tallinn have not yet been affected and industry observers believe that Ust-Luga will not take 100% of Tallinn's Russian oil export traffic. This downside risk has however forced the port of Tallinn to loom at diversification projects with a container terminal expansion proposed, which would see upside risk to our box throughput volumes.
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