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Romania Shipping Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 94
Business Monitor International's Romania Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Romania's freight transportation industry.
Throughput at Romania's largest port, Constantza, is on course to decline again in 2010. The port did not escape the global downturn in trade in 2009, with tonnage at the facility decreasing by 32.1% year-on year (y-o-y) and container volumes falling by 57% y-o-y.
The latest year-to-date figures (January-June 2010) indicate that tonnage volumes at the port of Constantza for the first six months of 2010 increased by just 0.66% on the same period in 2009. Box levels are down by 19.8%, indicating that the port is on course to record further y-o-y falls in throughput, lending credence to BMI's throughput expectations for 2010.
This offers a sound base for BMI's forecasts in port throughput at Constantza for 2011 and for the rest of the mid term. We predict that port's tonnage will reach 35.9mn tonnes in 2015, increasing by 5.5% on the projected 2011 handling figure. Container volumes for the same period will increase by 22.2% to reach 703,484 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2015.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Constantza tonnage throughput forecast at +1.07% following a projected fall of 19.77% in 2010.
- 2011 port of Constantza container throughput forecast at +4.46% following a projected fall of 7.28% in 2010.
- 2011 total trade growth forecast +6.43%.
Key Industry Trends
Country's Largest Marine LPG Terminal Opened - Octogon Gas & Logistics has invested in Romania's largest marine terminal for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which was opened at the port of Midia. Octogon plans to use the facility to supply LPG to the domestic market and to neighbouring Bulgaria, Hungary and Serbia. Almost 80% of the total investment constitutes a loan from Banca Transilvania. Regular line to link Constantza and Lattakia, Syria - The port of Constantza and the Syrian port of Lattakia look set to gain a regular shipping link. A Syrian delegation, consisting of members of the country's Ministry of Transports and the management of the port of Lattakia visited Constantza in October 2010 in a follow-up to a collaboration protocol signed by ports in May. This shipping link could create upside potential to maritime trade between the two countries as both ports are important merchandise-distribution centres for their respective regions of Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Risks To Outlook
Risks to the outlook for Romania's shipping sector are largely attributable to the country's economic outlook and its geographic position. BMI's country risk team holds the view that Romania's economy will post a second year of contraction in 2010 (BMI's real GDP growth forecast is -1.9%), with this weakness continuing into the first half of 2011.
Severe fiscal austerity measures implemented by the Romanian government may lead to demand destruction, weighing heavily on economic growth. Nevertheless, in the longer run, Romania's economic convergence and integration with Western Europe might play out to facilitate solid growth. In terms of location Romania's port of Constantza is ideally located to become a transhipment hub for the Black Sea region and a distribution centre for Central and Eastern Europe.
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