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China Tourism Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 59
Business Monitor International's China Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's tourism industry.
On Set For Positive Full-Year 2010 Arrivals
Data released by the China National Tourism Administration in October 2010 show that China’s tourism recovery has continued throughout the year. Arrivals in the first nine months of the year rose by 6.21% annually, boding well for strong full-year figures. The rate of arrivals growth has declined slightly since earlier in the year. In September, arrivals totalled 6.21% annual growth, compared to 12% in H110.
However, this moderation in headline growth figures does not indicate that the Chinese tourism recovery is beginning to slow. Instead, it reflects a higher base of comparison in H209, with arrivals figures having begun to recover by the end of the year. As such, we expect current levels of growth to continue until the end of the year and are therefore forecasting full-year tourist arrivals growth of 62.2 million. We then expect tourism arrivals to continue rising in 2011, although below the sharp rebound rates seen in early 2010.
Focus On Macau
Macau is one of China’s two special administrative regions, the other being Hong Kong. It is located in southwest China and has a short border with Guangdong. The majority of Macao is comprised of the long Macao peninsula, as well as the islands Taipa and Coloane. Although Macau borders the Zuhai Special Economic Zone, its main revenues come from tourism. Macau is a domestic and regional hub, largely because of its position as the country’s gambling capital. Gambling is not legal in most of the rest of the country and in some other countries in the region. Tourism and gambling provide approximately half of Macau’s GDP. The gambling industry has boomed since 2001, when Las Vegas casino chains began to move into the region. There are now 33 casinos on Macau. The territory experienced strong tourism arrivals even during the industry downturn, with more domestic visitors compensating for a slight dip in international visitors. Moreover, Macau has led the country’s tourism recovery in 2010, with arrivals growing by a stellar 17.1% annually in the first nine months of the year, to 18.59mn.
Major Fleet Expansion Signals Airline Recoveries
The recovery of China’s tourism industry has had the result of pulling most of its airlines back into the black. Returning confidence in the country’s airline industry was demonstrated in early November 2010, when during a visit to France Chinese President Hu Jintao signed a US$14bn deal to buy 102 Airbus aircraft. Airbus recently opened a factory in China, meaning that it is now easier to supply the aviation market. The order includes 50 A320s, 43 A330s and 10 A350 passenger planes. Although it is as yet unclear which airlines will receive which aircraft, major carrier Air China is likely to benefit.
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