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Hungary Tourism Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Hungary Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
During the first eight months of 2010, there were signs of recovery in foreign tourism to Hungary, with the number of international guest arrivals in the hospitality sector rising 3.6%, compared with the same period in 2009 (despite the lack of growth in foreign tourist nights over the same period). Concerning domestic guest arrivals, growth remained depressed however, with numbers down almost 3% year-onyear (y-o-y).
Hospitality
After a pickup in tourist nights in the hospitality sector in the early months of 2010 – following a notable downturn in the previous year – data for the period January-August show stagnant growth. The total number of nights by foreign and domestic tourists spent in all accommodation establishments in the first eight months of 2010 fell marginally, by 0.6% y-o-y. Nights by international visitors (accounting for 48% of the total) were unchanged y-o-y. Nights by domestic residents were down a slight 1% compared with the same period in 2009. The most important source market for the sector, Germany, which accounted for nearly 12% of all nights in 2009, recorded a relatively sharp decline of nearly 8% y-o-y in tourist nights. Of the other key markets, Austria and Italy recorded positive growth in the number of nights spent by tourists, up about 1% and 4% y-o-y respectively. The average occupancy rate of hotel rooms over the period was 45%, which was up slightly y-o-y. Five-star hotels though recorded a favourable increase in occupancy rates, to an average of around 58%.
Forecast Scenario
We maintain our annual growth forecast for foreign tourist arrivals of over 3% in 2010, with slight acceleration in growth in 2011. Further weakness in foreign tourist arrivals, however, is anticipated over the remainder of the forecast period. The short-term forecast is based on economic recovery in Hungary’s main source markets. These include the eurozone, where our revised forecasts are for growth of 1.4% in both 2010 and 2011, Romania and Slovakia. In Romania, although we see 2010 real GDP contracting by 1.9% in 2010 and expanding by a less-than-impressive 2.1% in 2011, growth in Slovakia is expected to be relatively favourable over the same two-year period. Despite the forint weakening significantly against the euro in Q210, which helped the competitiveness of the tourism sector, we anticipate gradual appreciation of the currency over the longer run. Overall, we believe the exchange rate against the euro will not provide a stimulus for the tourism sector over the forecast period.
Malév Hungarian Airlines
Following the renationalisation of the national flag carrier, Malév Hungarian Airlines, in February 2010, it was reported in September that the airline had received a HUF5.7bn (US$26mn) emergency cash injection from the state to pay the International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC) for aircraft leases for its fleet. During the 2010/2011 winter timetable (starting 31 October), Malév will increase frequencies on several routes including Amman, Helsinki, Dublin and Pristina.
Wizz Air
In August, Hungarian low-cost carrier Wizz Air announced the addition of Istanbul and Antalya (Turkey) to its choice of destinations from Budapest/Ferihegy Airport, bringing the total number of routes from Budapest to 25. In April 2011, the carrier will establish its 13th operating base in Belgrade (Serbia), deploying a new Airbus A320 aircraft. At the same time, Wizz Air will launch five new routes from Belgrade to Rome, Malmo, Stockholm-Skvasta, Eindhoven and Munich-Memmingen.
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