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Russia Tourism Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 20
Business Monitor International's Russia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
After weak growth during 2006-2008, official data show that the number of foreign visitor arrivals fell by 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009 to 20.8mn. The most recent data for foreign visitors to Russia, for H110, show a slight recovery in arrivals of 2% y-o-y, after a marginal fall y-o-y in Q110. However, most major source markets outside the former Soviet Union recorded sizeable falls in the number of visitors, with arrivals from Finland, Poland, the US and the UK all down by about 15% y-o-y. The number of visitors from China and Germany, however, increased by 0.6% and 9% y-o-y respectively.
Aircraft Safety
In August 2010, 11 people were killed and four injured when an Antonov-24 twin turboprop passenger plane crashed while trying to land in fog at Igarka Airport, northern Siberia. In September, a Tupolev-154 passenger plane flying from the Siberian city of Polyarny to Moscow landed safely on a disused military airstrip in Siberia after the aircraft lost power at 10,600m (34,800 feet). None of the 81 people onboard were hurt.
Terrorist Attacks In North Caucasus
There have been more terrorist attacks in Russia. In September 2010, at least 11 people were killed and more than 60 wounded in an apparent car bomb attack on a market in the North Caucasus town of Vladikavkaz. Also in the region during the same month, a suicide car bomb attack in Dagestan killed a number of soldiers.
Forecast Scenario
Despite our estimate of modest economic recovery in key source markets in 2010, we continue to expect little growth in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia. Concerning the eurozone, an important source market, our revised economic growth forecasts are for 1.5% in 2010 and 2011, picking up in 2012. Our positive outlook on the Russian rouble over a medium-term time horizon remains unchanged. This is likely to contribute to a subdued growth outlook for foreign arrivals over the forecast period.
Aeroflot
Financial results for H110 show that the Russian national carrier Aeroflot achieved a net profit of US$17.5mn in the six-month period, an increase of 24% y-o-y. Revenues totalled US$1,854mn, up by 27% y-o-y, while total operating costs increased by 25% y-o-y to US$1,689mn. Figures for the first nine months of 2010 also show a substantial increase in Aeroflot’s passenger traffic, with numbers rising by more than 31% y-o-y to about 8.5mn. The passenger load factor was 78%, with a strong increase y-o-y.
Other Russian Airlines
Transaero recorded buoyant passenger growth of almost 33% y-o-y for January-September 2010. In August, S7 Airlines renewed flights between Domodedovo International Airport and Georgia, while in November the airline joined the global airline alliance oneworld. Following annual growth in passenger traffic of 9.3% in 2009 to 3.5mn passengers, UTair recorded a substantial increase of nearly 34% y-o-y in traffic during the first nine months of 2010.
Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics, Formula One, 2018 World Cup
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has said that planning for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi is on schedule. In October 2010, it was announced that Sochi will host the Russian grand prix between 2014 and 2020 after agreeing a deal with Formula One, although the first race may take place in 2015 so as not to clash with the Winter Olympics. In December, Russia successfully bid to host the football World Cup in 2018.
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