United States Tourism Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, December 2010, Pages: 42
Business Monitor International's United States Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's tourism industry.
In 2009, the US had 54.9mn arrivals and 23.8mn of those were from overseas. The number of arrivals is estimated to have increased to 55.9mn in 2010 and reach 66.3mn by 2014. The majority of arrivals to the US come to the country for leisure purposes, with 12.3mn in 2009. In 2010, a slight drop in leisure arrivals is estimated, to 11.7mn, but this figure is forecast to rise to 14.1mn by 2014.
Once in the US there are many different attractions for tourists. The National Park System alone comprises 392 areas covering more than 84mn acres. These areas include national parks, monuments battlefields, historical parks, military parks, rivers, trails and the White House. In 2009, according to the National Park Service, 285.6mn recreational visitors went to the national parks. The country has 20 (eight cultural and 12 natural) UNESCO World Heritage sites. Aside from its natural beauty and the cultural sights, the US is home to some of the world’s most famous cities, from New York to Los Angeles. There is plenty to see and do for every type of visitor and the country’s large size and different climates mean that any time of year is a good time to visit.
We expect the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico to affect arrivals in to the US in the short term. The spill began on April 20 2010 and BP, which owns the project, stopped the leak, through which an estimated 53,000 barrels per day were escaping, by capping the gushing wellhead on July 15. It was reported that many tourists cancelled their stays along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama as oil reached the beaches. These states and Florida, where the Panhandle region was affected, are working to promote beaches that have not been affected. President Barack Obama was encouraging Americans to travel to the gulf this summer and his family have taken numerous trips to the region to show that there is no need to fear the oil spill. The US Travel Association estimated that the economic impact could be as great as US$23bn over a three-year period.
The top three source regions for inbound tourism to the US are North America, Latin America and Europe. Although North America and Latin America have swapped back and forth between first and second position in previous years, BMI forecasts that from 2011 North America will be the leading region. Unsurprisingly, the two leading tourism markets for the US are Canada and Mexico, with the UK occupying the third place. In 2011, arrivals from Canada, Mexico and the UK are forecast to total 19.0mn, 14.3mn and 4.3mn respectively.
In 2011, nearly 9.8mn people are expected to embark from the US onboard a cruise ship, in comparison to 13.9mn globally. The cruise industry is a growing one and BMI forecasts that 11.2mn people will take a cruise from the US in 2014, while 16.3mn will to do so worldwide. Passenger and cruise line expenditure is also on the rise, with US$20.2bn forecast to be spent in 2011, rising to US$26.0bn by 2014.
Outbound departures by US residents have been climbing since 2001, when 67.0mn people left the country. In 2011, it is forecast that 74.5mn will depart, rising to 78.8mn by the end of the forecast period. The top three destination regions for American tourists are Latin America, North America and Europe, with 37.4mn, 15.3mn and 12.9mn people forecast to visit those regions in 2011. The top three country destinations are Mexico, Canada and the UK. In 2011, 26.5mn American tourists are forecast to visit Mexico, while 15.3mn and 3.2mn are expected to visit Canada and the UK respectively.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- US Tourism SWOT
- US Political SWOT
- US Economic SWOT
- US Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals
- Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2014 (‘000)
- Expenditure
- Table: Expenditure Data, 2006-2014
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region And Country, 2006-2014
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014
- Table: Expenditure By US Residents Abroad, 2006-2014
- Domestic Tourism
- Table: Domestic Travel Data, 2006-2014
- Market Overview – Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2010 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
- Hotels
- Cruises
- Table: Cruise Industry Data, 2006-2014
- Security Risk Analysis
- Developed States Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Developed States Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- The US’ Security Risk Ratings
- City Terrorism Ratings
- Table: BMI’s Americas City Terrorism Index
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2014
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
- Table: BMI And Consensus Forecasts, 2010-2011 (%)
- Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2009-2012 (%)
- Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth, 2009-2012 (%)
Company Profiles
- United Continental Holdings
- Wyndham Hotel Group
- Carnival Corporation
- Marriott International
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- City Terrorism Ratings
- Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology
- Sources
- United Continental Holdings
- Wyndham Hotel Group
- Carnival Corporation
- Marriott International
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