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The EU Fiscal Crisis: Forcing Eurozone Political Union in 2011?
Searching Finance, Jan 2011, Pages: 101
The end of the euro would be the end of Europe – only tough collective action from eurozone leaders can prevent financial meltdown. But do political leaders fully realise the enormous scale of what is required and the frightening consequence of failure, and that intense financial and economic pressures are forcing far-reaching political changes in the eurozone? This searching and timely new study examines the driving forces and potential outcomes of the eurozone debt crisis.
In early 2011, the eurozone debt crisis looks likely to take a dramatic turn for the worse – raising the intensity of the search for enduring solutions as the markets now price six states as ‘risky’.
The eurozone leaders have collectively affirmed “that they stand ready to do whatever is required to ensure the stability of the euro area as a whole. The euro is and will remain a central part of European integration.” Chancellor Merkel of Germany and President Sarkozy of France also sent New Year messages to their citizens that cast the issue in terms that were both stark and historic. It is increasingly clear that the eurozone will take tough collective action on the economic governance of its members. However, in The EU Fiscal Crisis: Forcing Eurozone Political Union in 2011, Graham Bishop – a leading technical analyst of economic and structural developments in the financial markets of Europe – argues that the eurozone leaders have yet to truly grasp the huge challenges they face and the implications of failure. Furthermore, intense pressures from the interactions of financial markets, economics and politics are forcing the creation of a genuine eurozone political union.
The eurozone now faces several options for its future actions. Three scenarios are considered: an inflationary debt spiral; default; or the emergence of a collectively strong, federal eurozone. Graham convincingly argues that the visionary approach of the latter option is the only way forward for Europe. In this scenario, the eurozone will have emerged from the financial crisis as a political federation – loose in some respects, but with tightly centralised economic governance at its heart. The proven commitment to fiscal probity may even make it attractive relative to alternative investments around the world. The conclusion is that, if the eurozone does indeed do “whatever is required”, it will survive.
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