Turkey Real Estate Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, December 2010, Pages: 58
Turkey Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's Real Estate industry.
At first glance, Turkey’s commercial real estate market looks similar to many others across Central and Eastern Europe. The global financial crisis exacerbated macroeconomic imbalances, demand for rental space fell and rents dropped by around one-fifth over the course of 2009. Conditions became more challenging for many players.
In fact, it is the differences between the commercial real estate sector of Turkey and its counterparts in nearby countries that are much more important. Unlike the US, UK and certain parts of Western Europe (and, indeed, Central and Eastern Europe), Turkish banks have been restrained, and non-financial enterprises and households are under-geared. The building boom in Istanbul was not funded by aggressive lending. One implication of this is that distress selling of property by over-extended investors and developers is far less likely in Turkey than it is in other countries. Another implication is that Turkey will likely sustain significantly higher economic growth rates through 2011-2015 than most of the EU.
In early 2010, we were concerned that commercial real estate protagonists would have to deal with a massive over-supply of space in both the office and the retail sub-sectors. In actual fact, our interviews with in-country sources in the middle of the year indicated that the vacant space has been absorbed. Rental rates have been rising rapidly in the office sub-sector and tracking sideways in the retail subsector.
Dynamics in Ankara continue to be dominated by a gross under-supply of office space. As we anticipated, office rents have been rising rapidly in the city. retail and industrial rents in Ankara have been moving sideways.
It seems that yields in the office and retail sub-sectors have adjusted (ie fallen in the Istanbul office subsector and the retail sub-sectors in both cities) to equilibrium levels. Office and retail yields should, we believe, move sideways through the forecast period. By contrast, we expect that industrial yields will rise in the Istanbul industrial sub-sector and drift downwards in the Ankara industrial sub-sector.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Turkey Real Estate/Construction SWOT
Turkey Economic SWOT
Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Regional Real Estate Overview
Table: Central And Eastern European Office Markets At A Glance – Rents, 2009-2011 (EUR per m2 per month)
Table: Central And Eastern European Retail Markets At A Glance – Rents, 2009-2011 (EUR per m2 per month)
Table: Central And Eastern European Industrial Markets At A Glance – Rents, 2009-2011 (EUR per m2 per month)
Real Estate Market Overview
Key Issues
Table: Turkey Real Estate Markets – Rentals In m²/month, 2008 And 2009 (US$)
Table: Turkey Real Estate Markets – Net Yield, 2008 And 2009 (%)
Table: Turkey Real Estate Markets – Terms Of Contract/Lease
Table: Turkey Real Estate Markets – Available Space (m²) & Vacant Space (%)
Forecast Scenario
Real Estate Outlook
Table: Turkey Real Estate Markets – Rentals in m²/month, 2009-2011 (USD)
Table: Turkey Real Estate Markets – Forecast Net Yield, 2009-2015 (%)
Construction Industry Outlook
Table: Turkey Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007-2015
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Turkey – Economic Activity, 2005-2014
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Europe Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Turkey’s RECBER
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Central And Eastern Europe
Table: Design And Construction Rating
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
Turkey’s Business Environment
Table: BMI Business And Operational Risk Ratings
Table: BMI Legal Framework Ratings
Table: Labour Force Quality
Table: Annual FDI Inflows Into Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia
Table: BMI Trade Ratings
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2001-2008
Company Monitor
Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Project Finance Ratings Indicators
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
Sources
- Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS
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