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Bahrain Freight Transport Report 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 271
The Bahrain Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's freight transportation industry.
Expansion work on the King Fahd Causeway, connecting Bahrain with Saudi Arabia, was due to start in 2011, according to press reports in August 2010. The work will enable the road to handle 100mn passengers per year. Tenders for the project would be floated shortly, said Saleh al-Khileiwi, Saudi customs manager and King Fahad Causeway director-general. Work will include construction of 48 lanes for incoming and outgoing traffic and a waiting yard on each side of the causeway. A consultative company had been appointed to carry out a study for the development of the causeway in the next 20 years.
Bahrain has been going through a period of sluggish economic growth, but BMI expects the pace to pick up as the government boosts investment in the oil & gas sector, although the financial system remains rather fragile. While the country remains exposed to future oil price fluctuations, we highlight the development of its refined products capacity and plans to build a US$600mn liquefied natural gas import terminal - both of which can be expected to boost demand for freight transport. As a result of our analysis, BMI estimates 2010 GDP growth of 1.3% in Bahrain (following 2009's 3.1%). Our outlook for 2011 is for the recovery to only edge up a little against the headwinds of a double-dip slowdown across industrialised economies. Bahraini growth will increase to 1.9% and then gather more pace to reach 2.5% in 2012. In the five years to 2015, we expect growth to average 5.4% per annum, implying Bahrain will be one of better performers in the Middle East.
Over the last decade, Bahraini air cargo volume has grown strongly but has been prone to cyclical fluctuations. The global economic downturn of 2009 had a significant impact, with contraction that year totalling over one-tenth (-12.1%). While we saw a good recovery in 2010 (estimated growth of 20.1%), we forecast that the pace of growth will slow sharply in 2011, coming down to 1.1% to 395,700 tonnes. Against the background of a weak recovery in global trade, Bahrain's main bulk port at Mina Salman will see tonnage growth of 1.5% in 2011 to reach a total of 117,300 tonnes. This comes after a massive contraction of 79.1% in 2010, as Bahrain shifted much of its trade to the new port of Khalifa bin Salman, another important container terminal. Most tonnage will be handled at this newer facility, where throughout will be up by 1.5% in 2011 to 1.186mn tonnes.
In real terms, Bahraini trade growth contracted by 1.58% in 2009, then recovered slightly in 2010 with estimated growth of 1.87% and is set grow by 1.88% in 2011. In nominal terms, we are expecting imports to total US$12.33bn in 2011, with exports at US$16.27bn. In the period to 2015, average import growth in real terms will be 7.4% per annum, with exports growing at the lower rate of 6.2%.
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Bahrain Freight Transport Report 2012
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