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Turkey Infrastructure Report Q1 2011

Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 110


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Turkey Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's infrastructure industry.

BMI View: Our revised forecasts for Turkey's infrastructure sector indicate that in 2012 the sector will overtake residential and non-residential construction in making the largest contribution to Turkey's total construction industry value, accounting for 50.3% of the total. Transport is a key thrust behind value creation for the industry and there is further upside for the energy and utilities.

This quarter BMI has introduced extended forecasts to 2020 and a new section covering the Residential, Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure sectors in each of its markets.

Major developments over the previous quarter include:

- The agreement for an unprecedented US$30bn Chinese loan for Turkey's high-speed rail projects will, if followed through, fuel major (and previously unthought-of) growth in Turkey's railway market.

- The stalemate in the negotiations on the second nuclear power plant planned at the Black Sea region of Sinop stalled due to pricing and equity stakes disagreement between the government and South Korean companies.

- The Gebze – Izmir motorway entered the first construction phase, which sets the trend for our forecast for Turkey’s road infrastructure sector to play out from 2011 onwards.

- Pre-qualification documents were due by September 15 2010 for the Elazig Integrated Health Campus PPP, the latest in an ambitious programme of PPP projects launched by the Ministry of Health. The strategy has the potential to place Turkey firmly ahead of most other emerging markets in terms of the private procurement of hospitals

- A string of mega property development projects announced this quarter highlight the momentum building in Turkey’s residential construction sector. A US$2.5bn mixed use development in Istanbul and Sanko Holding’s plan to build 20,000 apartments in Turkey's south-eastern province of Gaziantep, illustrate the favourable growth conditions emerging in Turkey’s real estate market.

We maintain broadly the same headline forecasts trend for Turkey's infrastructure and overall construction sector in BMI's new forecasts to 2020. We have, however, priced in stronger growth for 2010 in light of new quarterly data and a more bullish transport infrastructure outlook.

The consecutive rises in our outlook for Turkey’s infrastructure sector have also resulted in a higher Infrastructure Business Environment score, as Rewards have become much more favourable. We see significant upside potential for Turkey, whose infrastructure and construction market has strong domestic players and is buttressed by positive population and macro fundamentals.


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