|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
North Korea Defence and Security Report 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 86
The North Korea Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on North Korea's defence and security industry.
North Korea's highly provocative attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in the disputed maritime border region on November 23 2010 has raised questions about Pyongyang's motives. We believe the North had three reasons for the attack. The first was to boost the military credentials of Kim Jong Un, who was revealed only in late September as the heir-apparent to leader Kim Jong Il. The second reason was to reinforce North Korea's tough stance as regards its nuclear programme and the third reason was to express anger at the South's military exercises in the region and suggestions in Seoul that US tactical nuclear warheads be redeployed to the South.
Nonetheless, there has also been speculation that the North Korean People's Army (KPA), which is the most powerful institution in the country, carried out the attack on its own initiative. While we consider this unlikely, we assert that if true it would represent a dangerous new wild card in North-South relations.
Overall, we reiterate our view that North Korea will experience collective rule, with the military playing the dominant role, once Kim Jong Il dies. We see a real possibility that Kim Jong Un could formally be anointed leader, but he is too young and inexperienced to inherit supreme executive power. Actual authority is likely to be exercised by chief of the general staff Ri Yong Ho, defence minister Kim Yong Chun, Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law Jang Song Thaek, and other more experienced hands. This should bode continuity in domestic and foreign policy.
In December 2010 the US confirmed that it saw a ‘clear likelihood’ that North Korea had built new uranium-enrichment facilities, According to Seoul newspaper Dong-a Ilbo, the North may be preparing a silo for an underground nuclear test, a process that may take around three months. The DRPK is apparently aware that the site is monitored by the US, so the manoeuvres may be an attempt to demonstrate Pyongyang’s maintenance of freedom of action, despite international sanctions, and increase its leverage with the US and other negotiating parties.
As of December 2010 the US, South Korea and Japan were publicly unwilling to back down in the face of North Korean prickliness and indeed attacks. Presenting a united front, they condemned Pyongyang and stated that the DPRK should make concrete steps to scale back its nuclear programme before further nuclear talks could be countenanced. China and Russia, however, have taken a more conciliatory stance.
Both the South Korean and US airforces are ready to strike if another attack from North Korea took place, Chosun and AFP reported in November and December. However, the scope of operations is likely to be limited to lightening strikes on military targets close to the border if a hypothetical conflict were to be contained, and even then, would run the risk of encouraging a cornered and paranoid North Korea into launching missile strikes on South Korean targets, including the capital, Seoul, which is close to the border. The unpredictability of the Kim regime makes planning for all eventualities incredibly difficult.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
