Serbia Telecommunications Report 2011

The Serbia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's telecommunications industry.

The 2011 report on Serbia’s telecoms market contains updated and extended forecasts that predict how the country’s fixed-line, internet, broadband and mobile sectors will develop through to the end of 2015. Our new forecasts reflect 2009 data published by Serbia’s fixed-line incumbent operator Telekom Serbia and by the Serbian telecoms regulator RATEL. Our forecasts and analysis also incorporate data published by the country’s three mobile operators, MTS, Telekom Serbia’s mobile business; Telenor Serbia, which is wholly owned by the Norwegian telecoms company Telenor; and Mobilkom Serbia (VIP Mobile), a subsidiary of Telekom Austria.

One development with major implications for the future development of Serbia’s telecoms market is the move by the government, currently under way, to sell a 51% stake in Telekom Serbia. In mid-December 2010, Serbia’s Ministry of Finance announced that seven companies had applied to participate in an upcoming tender. The seven companies were required to submit binding offers no later than February 21 2011. It is widely thought that the privatisation process could be completed by the end of H111. In October 2010, Serbia Minister for the Economy Mladjan Dinkic was quoted in the local press as saying that he hoped the sale of Telekom Serbia would raise at least EUR1.4bn (US$1.9bn). Some industry analysts estimate it is worth between EUR2bn and EUR4bn.

The latest data from Serbia’s telecoms regulator RATEL, and from the country’s three mobile operators, shows that there were over 9.913mn Serbian mobile customers at the end of 2009. This is equivalent to a penetration rate of 135.4%. Meanwhile, based on an analysis of data published by Serbia’s mobile operators, we estimate that the country’s mobile customer base expanded by just 3.2% in the first nine months of 2010. BMI estimates a growth rate of 4.1% for 2010 as a whole. Although this is higher than the growth recorded in 2009, it is significantly lower than the 16.2% growth rate recorded in 2007. The slowing growth partly reflects the country’s high penetration rate and the extent to which the market has moved closer to saturation point.

Our newly revised and extended mobile subscriber forecast for Serbia envisages relatively flat growth over the next few years. We estimate that 3G customers accounted for over 9.6% of the mobile market at the end of 2010; this was up from 7.7% at the end of 2009. BMI suspects that a weak economic climate was a major contributory factor in dampening 3G subscriber growth in 2010. Nevertheless, we are optimistic about the future expansion of the 3G market segment. One development which should benefit long-term 3G growth is the deployment and expansion of higher-speeds to HSPA technology; this development will further stimulate the proliferation of mobile data and video services.

In the wireline sector, recent months have seen several developments which should ultimately result in increased competition in the fixed-line telephony market. In May 2009, the regulator issued a licence to provide fixed wireless services to the ISP Media Works. Then in January 2010, the regulator awarded the country’s second fixed-line telephony licence to Telenor Serbia. Although Telenor Serbia initially aimed to lease Telekom Serbia’s infrastructure in order to provide fixed-line services, talks between Telenor and Telekom Serbia subsequently became deadlocked. Since then, the regulator has become involved in setting the terms and price at which Telekom Serbia will lease its infrastructure to Telenor. At the time of writing however, Telenor Serbia had yet to officially launch commercial fixed-line services. Serbia’s telecoms regulator suggests that the number of fixed-line telephony connections grew by just 0.7% in 2009 to reach 3.1mn (equivalent to 42.4% penetration). Slow fixed-line growth compared with the previous year reflects the competition which Telekom Serbia is experiencing from alternative communications services, including mobile telephony and VoIP. BMI believes that Serbia’s fixed-line sector experienced negative growth in 2010. By the end of the year, we believe that Serbia’s fixed-line penetration rate had fallen to around 41%.

Meanwhile, according to the regulator, the number of Serbian broadband connections increased by 52.5% in 2009 to reach 792,000; this is equivalent to a penetration rate of 10.8%. The publisher estimates that growth of almost 33% in 2010 helped to raise the penetration rate to over 14% by the end of the year. One of the most significant developments in recent months has been the growth of the mobile broadband segment.

However, growth in demand for DSL and cable-based broadband services also remains strong. Serbia sits in 14th position in BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for Central and Eastern Europe. The country scores below the regional average in all of the categories surveyed. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
- Serbia Mobile SWOT
- Serbia Wireline SWOT
- Serbia & Montenegro Political SWOT
- Serbia Economic SWOT
- Serbia Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Analysis

Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts

Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
- Table: Serbia Mobile Subscribers Q309-Q310 (‘000)
- Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q309-Q310 (‘000)
- Customer Divisions
- ARPU
- 3G
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins
- Mobile Content
- Regional Outlook
- Country Outlook
- Value-Added Services Timeline
- Table: Selected VAS Services
- Mobile Operator Data
- Table: Serbia Mobile Market Overview
- Table: MTS
- Table: Telenor Serbia
- Table: Vip
- Fixed Line
- VoIP
- Internet
- Table: Serbia Internet Subscribers, 2006-2009 (‘000)
- IPTV
- Table: Wireline Developments

Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
- Serbia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Legislation And Market Liberalisation
- Regulation

Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Players – Serbia Telecoms Sector
- Table: Selected Telecoms Operators Financial Indicators

Company Monitor
- Central and Eastern Europe Vendor Profile: Ericsson Nikola Tesla
- Table: Ericsson Nikola Tesla Financial Performance, 2007-2010 (HRK mn)
- Table: Ericsson Nikola Tesla Recent Contract Wins in Emerging Europe

Company Profiles
- Telekom Serbia
- Telenor Serbia

Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Mobile
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
- Fixed Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Internet
- Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview

Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Table: Education, 2000/01
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012

Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms

BMI Methodology
- Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
- Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
- Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Ratings Indicators
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Sources

- Telekom Serbia

- Telenor Serbia