Croatia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 81
Business Monitor International's Croatia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's oil and gas industry.
This latest Croatia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.68% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing just 0.13% to regional supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is forecast to rise to 6.05mn b/d in 2010 and increase to around 6.89mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and is expected to average 13.82mn b/d in 2010 and 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total is forecast to rise to 7.76mn b/d in 2010 and 8.19mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region is forecast to consume an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Croatia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is expected to be around 0.47%, while its share of production is put at 0.25%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.60%, with the country accounting for 0.31% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25/bbl, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21/bbl and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.50/bbl, compared with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts Croatian real GDP falling by 0.4% in 2010 and average annual growth of 2.4% from 2010- 2015. Consumption of oil is set to grow more slowly than the underlying economy, increasing by less than 1.5% per annum over the forecast period and reaching 115,000b/d by 2015. Imports are therefore set to rise from an estimated 82,000b/d in 2010 to no more than 95,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Former state oil group INA is attempting to raise local supply in partnership with major shareholder MOL, but we expect to see a steady decline in oil and liquids production, from the estimated 2010 level of 24,000b/d to no more than 20,000b/d by 2015. We expect gas output of an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to have reached 3.0bcm by 2015. Consumption is forecast to rise from an estimated 3.0bcm in 2010 to 4.5bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 1.5bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Croatian oil consumption of 17.2%, with crude import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 82,000b/d to 108,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production is expected to fall from an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to a peak of 3.0bcm before easing to 2.3bcm by 2020. Import dependency therefore increases to 3.2bcm during the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Croatia now holds 13th place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares eighth place with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. The minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress and reasonable country risk factors.
There is limited long-term scope for Croatia to pull away from its low-scoring rivals, given their greater hydrocarbons potential. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are much more likely to leave Croatia behind.
Croatia occupies last place in BMI’s downstream BERs, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress up the rankings. Oil and gas demand are among the region’s lowest, as is the oil demand growth outlook. Population, nominal GDP and growth in GDP per capita are also low-scoring areas.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Croatia Political SWOT
- Croatia Economic SWOT
- Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Croatia Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
- Regaining Momentum
- Quarterly Trends
Global Oil Market Outlook
- Sitting Comfortably
- Oil Price Forecasts
- Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
- Short-Term Demand Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Short-Term Supply Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
- Oil Price Assumptions
- Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
- Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
- Business Environment Ratings
- Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores
- Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
- Upstream Scores
- Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
- Croatia Upstream Rating – Overview
- Croatia Upstream Rating – Rewards
- Croatia Upstream Rating – Risks
- Downstream Scores
- Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
- Croatia Downstream Rating – Overview
- Croatia Downstream Rating – Rewards
- Croatia Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Croatia Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Croatia Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Croatia - Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing and Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- Industrija Nafte (INA)
- Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf)
- Eni
- MOL – Summary
- Plinacro – Summary
- OMV – Summary
- Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Regional Oil Demand
- Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Regional Oil Supply
- Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
- Regional Refining Capacity
- Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Regional Gas Demand
- Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Regional Gas Supply
- Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)
- Croatia Country Overview
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
- Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
- Introduction
- Ratings Overview
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
- Indicators
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Energy Industry
- Cross checks
- Sources
- Industrija Nafte (INA)
- Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf)
- Eni
- MOL
- Plinacro
- OMV
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