South Africa Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 65
The South Africa Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's power industry.
The new South Africa Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 21.28% of the Middle East and Africa (MEA)’s regional power generation by 2015. Further supply disruptions can be expected if the country cannot add significantly to existing capacity. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (when markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). We forecast an increase in regional generation to 1,518TWh by 2015, a rise of 24.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast
for 2015 is 1,378TWh, implying 20.8% growth in 2010-2015 that reduces the market share of thermal generation slightly, to 90.8%, thanks in part to environmental concerns that should promote renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. South Africa’s thermal generation in 2010 was an estimated 255TWh, or 22.35% of the regional total. By 2015 it is expected to account for 21.51% of regional thermal generation.
Coal was the dominant fuel in South Africa in 2010, accounting for an estimated 77.6% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 19.0% and nuclear with a 2.2% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8% growth over the period since 2010. South Africa’s estimated 2010 market share of 13.99% is set to ease to 13.36% by 2015. The country’s estimated 12.5TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 16.0TWh by 2015, with its share of the MEA nuclear market falling from 100.0% to 61.5% over the period.
South Africa now shares third place with Egypt in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to its market size, low level of energy import dependency and reasonably high proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not yet competitive, with little progress towards privatisation, and the regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive.
BMI forecasts that South African real GDP growth will average 3.87% a year in 2010-2015, with 2011 growth of 3.60%. The population is expected to expand from 49.7mn to 52mn, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption forecast to rise 97% and 16% respectively. Electricity consumption is set to increase from an estimated 211TWh in 2010 to 257TWh by 2015, maintaining current market tightness if the country can deliver only our forecast annual average of 3.7% generation growth in 2010-2015.
Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast an increase in South African electricity generation of 36.3%, the bottom of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 13.7% over 2015-2020, down from 19.9% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to fall from 15.4% in 2010-2015 to 14.8%, or 32.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 250% in hydro-power use, from a very low base, in 2010-2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 34% in 2010-2020, with nuclear consumption up 60%.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Africa Power Business Environment SWOT
South Africa Political SWOT
South Africa Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
Global
Table: Global Summary Of BMI Universe*, 2008-2015 (TWh, unless otherwise stated)
Middle East And Africa
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Market Overview
Primary Energy Demand
Power Generation
Power Consumption
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Power Transmission
Business Environment
Middle East And Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
South Africa’s Power Rating
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Foreign Trade Regime
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
South Africa’s Power Outlook
Generation
Table: South Africa’s Power Sector, 2008-2015
Gas-Fired
Oil-Fired
Coal-Fired
Table: South Africa’s Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Nuclear Energy
Hydro-Electric
Renewable Energy
Table: South Africa’s Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015
Power Costs
Table: South Africa’s Power Costs, 2008-2015 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
Transmission
Assumptions And Methodology
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Power Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: South Africa – Macroeconomic Activity, 2007-2015
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Snapshot
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020
Regional Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe)
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa’s Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
South Africa Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Company Monitor
Eskom
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Power Industry
Cross Checks
Sources
- Eskom
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