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France Metals Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 47
Business Monitor International's France Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's metals industry.
The growth witnessed in French steel consumption and output in 2010 is set to slow in 2011 due to decreasing rates of private consumption growth, according this latest France Metals Report from BMI.
In the first 11 months of 2010, French crude steel output was up 21.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 11.3mn tonnes, with blast furnace output up 31.9% y-o-y to 9.1mn tonnes and EAF output up 7.3% to 5.2mn tonnes. However, growth moderated in H210 with monthly output in November down 1.6% y-o-y and 6.1% m-o-m to 1.29mn tonnes; blast furnace output was down 13.6% y-o-y to 751,000 tonnes while EAF output was up 21.9% y-o-y to 539,000 tonnes. France’s steel industry is lagging behind the rest of the EU-27 with output up 26.3% y-o-y in 11M10 and 4.1% y-o-y in November. The closure of two French mills by ArcelorMittal depressed output in H210. BMI estimates that French finished steel consumption grew 15.2% y-o-y to 13.6mn tonnes, but was still 24% down on the 2007 peak.
Despite the ongoing healthy performance of private consumption, which we have long expected to remain the key driver of growth going forward, we nevertheless continue to forecast something of a slowdown in French growth next year. However, we now expect a much less severe dip in growth, with real GDP forecast to expand by 1.4% in 2011 (from 1.5% in 2010), compared with our previous forecast of 1.0%. The recovery in the domestic steel market during 2010 – driven by a resilient consumer – is unlikely to be at a fast enough pace to return consumption to pre-crisis norms in 2011 in our view. Stalling consumer confidence and fiscal cuts will start to weigh on household spending.
BMI does not envisage a return to pre-recession levels until 2013 or 2014, although there is a possibility of some plant and furnace closures, which could lead to lower output levels over this period. By 2015, crude steel output should be around 18.3mn tonnes, which is around 2.2% above 2008 levels. Aluminium should fare better, helped in part by its use in lighter and more fuel-efficient vehicles. By 2015, aluminium production should have recovered to 2008 levels, provided there is no closure of capacity.
The main constraining factor is the long-term fall in demand from steel-consuming industries, notably the automotive sector, which is not expected to return to pre-recession rates of production in the next five years. In 2010, key steel and aluminium flat product consuming industries exhibited a slow recovery, although growth was principally due to base effects. BMI estimates that vehicle production fell to 1.76mn units in 2009, a fall of 16% over 2008 and down 43% over 2006 levels. We do not forecast a return to production volumes of 2mn units or above over the next five years. BMI’s automotive team warns that French production could continue to be eroded by companies moving operations to cheaper Eastern European bases, although the government’s five-year loan to carmakers and the consequent carmaker commitments will ensure that the fall in output is not too drastic. This will undermine the competitiveness of French industries up the supply chain due to the resulting increase in transportation costs and the likely appreciation of the euro against Eastern European currencies over the medium term.
BMI’s infrastructure team forecast real industry value growth of -4.4% in 2009 and 0.4% in 2010 before a recovery is staged in 2011, when growth is forecast at 2.7%, lifting domestic demand for constructionrelated long steel products.
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